Kenny Pickett's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 20% over the last 10 games with a brutal -61.8% ROI on overs. Averaging 4.3 rushing yards against a 10.2 line creates a massive -5.9 differential that screams systemic undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Kenny Pickett's rushing yard struggles reflect a fundamental shift in his playing style and the offensive systems he's operated within. The 4.3 yard average against 10.2 lines suggests books are still pricing him as a mobile quarterback threat when the reality shows a pocket passer who rarely scrambles. This disconnect likely stems from outdated college scouting reports and early NFL flashes that no longer represent his current usage. The current three-game under streak extending a pattern where Pickett has hit four consecutive unders at one point demonstrates this isn't random variance but systematic execution. His transition to Philadelphia adds another layer, as the Eagles' established offensive rhythm with Jalen Hurts means Pickett enters games in specific situations that don't favor scrambling. The 52.7% ROI on unders over this sample represents exceptional value that persists because recreational bettors still view quarterbacks through a mobility lens. This trend shows remarkable consistency with only brief over streaks, suggesting the market hasn't properly adjusted to Pickett's evolved playing style and reduced rushing opportunities in his current role.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -5.9 yard differential and 80% under rate create compelling value, but the limited sample size and potential role changes with Philadelphia prevent maximum confidence. Target this prop when Pickett enters games in relief situations or when books set lines above 8 yards, as his pocket-first approach consistently fails to reach inflated rushing expectations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 8.5 | 3.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 9.5 | 5.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 8.5 | 9.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 9.5 | -1.0 | -10.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 12.5 | 9.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 12.5 | 11.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-18 | OPP | 13.5 | -6.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kenny Pickett's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Kenny Pickett has gone under his rushing yards prop in 8 of his last 10 games (80% under rate), with only 2 overs for a dismal 20% success rate on over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kenny Pickett Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Kenny Pickett's rushing yards props. The 80% under rate and -5.9 yard average differential create strong value, especially when lines exceed 8 yards.
What's Kenny Pickett's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Kenny Pickett averages just 4.3 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 10.2 yards, creating a massive -5.9 yard negative differential.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kenny Pickett rushing yard unders when he enters games in relief situations or when books set lines above 8 yards, as his pocket-passing style limits scrambling opportunities.