Kenny Pickett's passing touchdown props present one of the most reliable under plays in the NFL, hitting just 10.0% over the last 10 games with a devastating 1-9-0 record. The Eagles quarterback averages only 0.3 touchdowns per game against lines around 1.1, creating consistent value on unders with +71.8% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Kenny Pickett's touchdown production collapse represents a perfect storm of limited opportunity and execution struggles that shows no signs of reversing. His 0.3 touchdown average against 1.1 lines creates an 0.8 touchdown deficit that reflects both his backup role behind Jalen Hurts and his conservative skill set when given chances. The eight-game under streak isn't random variance—it's systematic underperformance driven by Philadelphia's run-heavy approach and Pickett's reluctance to push the ball into scoring areas. His brief appearances typically come in mop-up duty or specific packages that prioritize ball security over explosive plays. The Eagles' offensive system, built around Hurts' dual-threat ability, doesn't translate well to Pickett's more traditional pocket-passing style. Sportsbooks continue setting lines above 1.0 touchdowns, likely accounting for his draft pedigree and occasional spot starts, but the reality is far different. Pickett's touchdown rate remains suppressed by limited red zone opportunities and a coaching staff that doesn't fully trust his arm talent in crucial situations. The consistency of this underperformance across different game scripts and opponents suggests this isn't a temporary slump but rather a reflection of his current role and capabilities within Philadelphia's offense.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. The 90% under rate over 10 games combined with the massive -0.8 touchdown differential creates exceptional value that shows no signs of regression. Pickett's limited role and conservative approach make touchdown props consistently overvalued by books. The primary risk is a potential injury to Jalen Hurts forcing extended action, but even then, Philadelphia's run-first mentality would likely limit Pickett's scoring opportunities in meaningful situations.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-02 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kenny Pickett's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Kenny Pickett has gone 1-9-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 10.0% of over bets. He's averaging only 0.3 passing touchdowns per game while lines typically sit around 1.1, creating a significant underperformance pattern.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kenny Pickett Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the UNDER on Kenny Pickett's passing touchdowns with high confidence. His 90% under rate and -0.8 touchdown differential over 10 games represents one of the most reliable prop trends available, generating +71.8% ROI on under bets.
What's Kenny Pickett's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Kenny Pickett averages just 0.3 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 contests, well below the typical 1.1 line set by sportsbooks. This creates an 0.8 touchdown gap that consistently favors under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Kenny Pickett touchdown unders when he's in his typical backup role behind Jalen Hurts, especially in games where Philadelphia is expected to control with their ground game. Avoid if Hurts is injured and Pickett becomes the clear starter.