Kenneth Gainwell's rushing yards prop shows a marginal 53.3% over rate in home games with an 8-7 record. His 15.73-yard average barely exceeds the 14.77 line, creating a thin +1.0 differential that suggests modest value on overs despite underwhelming ROI metrics.
Expert Analysis
Gainwell's home rushing performance reflects the complex dynamics of Philadelphia's backfield rotation and game script tendencies at Lincoln Field. The 53.3% over rate masks significant volatility, evidenced by alternating streaks reaching four games in either direction. His slight edge over the betting line stems from the Eagles' tendency to establish ground games early at home, where crowd energy and familiar conditions create optimal rushing environments. However, the marginal +1.8% ROI on overs signals that oddsmakers have largely adjusted to this pattern. The concerning -10.9% under ROI suggests that when Gainwell fails to hit his rushing total at home, he falls significantly short, likely due to negative game scripts or increased passing volume. His role as a complementary back means his rushing opportunities fluctuate based on Jalen Hurts' rushing usage and overall offensive flow. The lack of dominant streaks in either direction indicates this is more about situational variance than a predictable pattern. Home field advantage appears real but modest for Gainwell's rushing production, creating a slight but not overwhelming edge that requires careful timing and game script consideration.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 53.3% hit rate and thin +1.0 average differential provide marginal value, but the modest ROI suggests this edge is already priced in. Target overs when Philadelphia projects positive game script or weather favors ground games. The primary risk is Gainwell's secondary role limiting carries in pass-heavy game plans, making this more of a volume play than a skill-based edge.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 6.5 | 10.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 8.5 | 8.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 10.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 17.5 | 4.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 10.5 | 20.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 20.5 | 26.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-14 | OPP | 13.5 | 43.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 13.5 | 9.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-16 | OPP | 11.5 | 6.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 14.5 | 2.0 | -12.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 20.5 | 5.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-25 | OPP | 19.5 | 41.0 | +21.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 15.5 | 22.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 16.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 28.5 | 14.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kenneth Gainwell's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Kenneth Gainwell has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 8 of 15 home games (53.3% rate) with a 1.0-yard average edge over the typical 14.77-yard line, showing slight but consistent home field advantage.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kenneth Gainwell Rushing Yards home games?
Lean over on Gainwell's home rushing yards props, but with low confidence. The 53.3% hit rate provides marginal value, but target games with favorable weather conditions and positive game scripts for Philadelphia's ground attack.
What's Kenneth Gainwell's average Rushing Yards home games?
Gainwell averages 15.73 rushing yards in home games compared to a typical 14.77-yard betting line, creating a modest +1.0 differential that suggests slight but consistent value on over bets in home contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Gainwell rushing overs in home games with favorable weather and when Philadelphia projects positive game script. Avoid in potential shootouts or when facing strong run defenses that could limit his complementary role opportunities.