Kendrick Bourne's reception props show consistent over value with a 60.0% hit rate (9-6 record) and strong +0.6 average differential above the line. The +14.6% ROI on overs against -23.6% on unders creates a clear mathematical edge. Lean Over on Bourne reception props.
Expert Analysis
Kendrick Bourne has established himself as a reliable target in New England's passing attack, consistently exceeding modest market expectations set at 2.63 receptions per game. His 3.27 actual average represents a meaningful 24% edge over the betting line, suggesting oddsmakers have consistently undervalued his role in the Patriots offense. The 60% over rate across 15 games indicates this isn't random variance but reflects Bourne's steady involvement as a possession receiver who finds ways to contribute even in limited snaps. The positive ROI differential (+14.6% vs -23.6%) demonstrates the market's persistent mispricing, likely due to Bourne's perception as a secondary option rather than recognizing his consistent target share. While the recent one-game under streak might concern some bettors, it pales against his longer five-game over streak, showing his ability to string together productive performances. The lack of extreme volatility in his usage patterns makes him an ideal candidate for over betting, as he rarely disappears completely from game plans. Patriots' offensive scheme often utilizes multiple receivers in short-to-intermediate routes where Bourne thrives, creating natural opportunities for reception accumulation regardless of game script.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Kendrick Bourne's 60% over rate and +0.6 differential above the line create consistent value, particularly when books set his reception total at 2.5 or lower. The +14.6% ROI on overs demonstrates sustainable edge against market pricing. Primary risk involves potential target competition if other Patriots receivers return healthy, but his reliable hands and route-running make him a steady floor play in most game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 6.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 10.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kendrick Bourne's Receptions prop record all games?
Kendrick Bourne's reception props show a 9-6 over/under record (60% overs) across 15 games from September 2023 through December 2024, with an average of 3.27 receptions against a 2.63 betting line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kendrick Bourne Receptions all games?
Bet over on Kendrick Bourne receptions. His 60% over rate, +0.6 differential above the line, and +14.6% ROI on overs create consistent value, especially when lines are set at 2.5 or below.
What's Kendrick Bourne's average Receptions all games?
Kendrick Bourne averages 3.27 receptions per game compared to the typical betting line of 2.63, creating a +0.6 differential that represents 24% value above market expectations across his 15-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Bourne reception overs when lines are set at 2.5 or lower, particularly in games where Patriots are expected to throw frequently or when other receivers face injury concerns that could increase his target share.