Kayshon Boutte has quietly emerged as a reliable over target in receptions props, hitting the over in 6 of his last 10 games (60.0%) while averaging 2.9 receptions against a 2.2 line average. This +0.7 differential represents genuine value, particularly given the Patriots' evolving offensive identity. Lean over on Boutte reception props.
Expert Analysis
Boutte's reception prop success stems from New England's strategic pivot toward shorter, higher-percentage passing concepts that maximize his skill set as a route-runner. The 2.9 average against 2.2 lines suggests oddsmakers are consistently undervaluing his target share in an offense that increasingly relies on quick-hitting patterns. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic mispricing. Boutte's role has crystallized as the Patriots' possession receiver, particularly effective in situations where Drake Maye needs reliable outlets. The trend shows remarkable consistency without extreme outliers, suggesting sustainable usage patterns rather than boom-or-bust volatility. His current two-game over streak aligns with increased offensive tempo and Maye's growing comfort level. The key concern is New England's overall offensive limitations, which could cap total passing volume. However, Boutte's reception props benefit more from target distribution than raw passing attempts, making him less vulnerable to game script variations that might hurt yardage or touchdown props.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Boutte's 60% over rate and +0.7 average differential reflect genuine market inefficiency in a Patriots offense that increasingly values his possession skills. Target him when lines sit at 2.5 or lower, particularly in games where New England projects to throw 25+ times. The primary risk remains offensive stagnation, but his role as Maye's security blanket provides a solid floor.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Kayshon Boutte props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kayshon Boutte's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Boutte has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60.0% success rate. He's averaging 2.9 receptions per game against typical lines around 2.2, creating a positive +0.7 differential that translates to +14.6% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kayshon Boutte Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Boutte's reception props. His 60% over rate and +0.7 average differential indicate consistent market undervaluation. Target lines at 2.5 or lower for maximum value, especially when the Patriots project for higher passing volume in competitive games.
What's Kayshon Boutte's average Receptions last 10 games?
Boutte is averaging 2.9 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines around 2.2. This +0.7 differential represents significant value, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in New England's evolving passing attack.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Boutte reception props when lines are set at 2.5 or lower, particularly in games where New England projects to attempt 25+ passes. His value peaks in competitive matchups where the Patriots need reliable possession receivers rather than blowout scenarios.