Kareem Hunt has hit the over on his receptions prop just 30% of the time across his last 10 games, going 3-7-0 with a brutal -42.7% ROI on overs. Despite averaging 1.9 receptions versus a 1.8 line, the under has delivered consistent value with +33.6% returns. Clear lean under on Hunt reception props.
Expert Analysis
Hunt's reception struggles stem from Kansas City's evolved offensive identity, where he functions primarily as a short-yardage and goal-line specialist rather than a pass-catching complement. The Chiefs have increasingly leaned on Travis Kelce, their wide receiver corps, and even Isiah Pacheco in passing situations, relegating Hunt to a more traditional power back role. His 1.9 average barely exceeds the typical 1.8 line, but this marginal edge masks significant volatility - Hunt either catches 3-4 passes in competitive games or sees just 0-1 target in blowouts or run-heavy scripts. The current two-game under streak extends a pattern where Hunt's reception totals cluster at the extremes. Most concerning for over bettors is Hunt's usage trending toward situational rather than every-down work, meaning his target share remains game-script dependent. With the Chiefs often controlling games and emphasizing ball control over volume passing, Hunt's reception opportunities stay limited. The 70% under rate isn't fluky - it reflects his diminished role in Kansas City's passing attack compared to his Cleveland days.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Hunt's 30% over rate and +33.6% under ROI reflect his reduced pass-catching role in Kansas City's offense, where he's become more of a short-yardage specialist than a receiving threat. Target Hunt unders when the Chiefs are favored by 7+ points or in divisional matchups where they typically control tempo. Main risk is a competitive game script forcing increased passing volume that could inflate his target share unexpectedly.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 0.5 | 2.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 7.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kareem Hunt's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Hunt has gone 3-7-0 on his receptions over/under in his last 10 games, hitting just 30% of overs. This represents a strong under trend with the under going 7-3-0 for +33.6% ROI while overs show -42.7% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kareem Hunt Receptions last 10 games?
Bet the under on Hunt's receptions. His 30% over rate and +33.6% under ROI show clear value on the under side. His role as a situational back limits targets, making the under the profitable long-term play.
What's Kareem Hunt's average Receptions last 10 games?
Hunt averages 1.9 receptions over his last 10 games compared to the typical 1.8 line. While this shows a slight positive differential of +0.1, the minimal edge doesn't justify over betting given the 70% under hit rate.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hunt reception unders when Kansas City is favored by 7+ points or in divisional games where they control tempo. Avoid betting his props in potential shootouts or when the Chiefs are underdogs and may need to throw more frequently.