Kalif Raymond has shown significant volatility in his receiving yards props, posting a 5-5-0 record over his last 10 games with a modest +8.9 yard differential above his average line of 16.1 yards. Despite averaging 25.0 yards per game, the negative ROI on both sides suggests market efficiency. This is a cautious lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Raymond's receiving yards trend reveals a player operating in Detroit's high-octane offense with inconsistent target distribution. The 25.0 yards per game average represents a 55% premium over his typical 16.1 yard line, indicating the market may be undervaluing his role as the Lions' primary slot receiver. However, the perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides signals sharp market pricing that's difficult to exploit. Raymond's production heavily depends on game script and the health of Detroit's receiving corps. When Amon-Ra St. Brown or Josh Reynolds miss time, Raymond's target share spikes dramatically, often pushing him well over modest lines. The concern lies in Detroit's explosive rushing attack and multiple red zone threats, which can limit Raymond's ceiling in blowout victories. His floor remains relatively stable due to his slot role and Jared Goff's tendency to check down, but the Lions' offensive diversity creates week-to-week uncertainty. The alternating streak pattern suggests game-specific factors rather than sustainable trends, making this more about situational handicapping than following momentum.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Raymond's 8.9-yard differential above market expectations provides modest edge, particularly when Detroit faces competitive games requiring consistent passing. Target this prop when the Lions are road underdogs or in projected shootouts where Goff will need to utilize his full receiving corps. The primary risk is Detroit's ability to control games through their rushing attack, limiting Raymond's opportunities in comfortable victories.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 30.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 20.5 | 12.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 22.5 | 14.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 27.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 0.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 14.5 | 11.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 18.5 | 0.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 11.5 | 90.0 | +78.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 13.5 | 46.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 20.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Kalif Raymond's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Raymond has gone 5-5-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% with both sides showing -4.5% ROI, indicating a perfectly balanced but unprofitable betting market.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Kalif Raymond Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Raymond's receiving yards props. His 25.0 yard average beats the typical 16.1 line by 8.9 yards, providing modest edge in competitive game scripts despite the balanced record.
What's Kalif Raymond's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Raymond averages 25.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to his average line of 16.1 yards, creating a favorable +8.9 yard differential that suggests market undervaluation.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Raymond receiving yards overs when Detroit plays competitive games or faces defensive pressure requiring slot usage. Avoid in projected blowouts where the Lions can rely on their rushing attack.