Juwan Johnson has delivered consistent value on reception overs, hitting in 60% of his last 10 games with a +0.5 average differential above the betting line. The Saints tight end's 14.6% ROI on overs reflects genuine market inefficiency rather than random variance, making his reception props a reliable target.
Expert Analysis
Johnson's reception over success stems from his evolving role in New Orleans' passing attack, where he's become Derek Carr's most reliable safety valve in the intermediate range. The 3.2 reception average against a 2.7 line reveals books consistently undervaluing his involvement, particularly in games where the Saints face defensive pressure or need to sustain drives. His 60% over rate isn't just statistical noise—it reflects a player whose usage has increased as the season progressed, with coaches recognizing his hands and route-running ability in crucial situations. The concerning 23.6% ROI on unders suggests bettors who fade Johnson are getting burned consistently, indicating the market hasn't fully adjusted to his increased target share. While tight end reception props can be volatile due to game script dependency, Johnson's consistency suggests he's carved out a defined role that transcends situational football. The longest over streak of three games demonstrates his ability to string together productive performances, while the modest under streaks indicate his floor remains relatively high. This trend appears sustainable given New Orleans' offensive philosophy and Johnson's established chemistry with Carr in short-to-intermediate passing situations.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Johnson's 60% over rate and positive line differential indicate genuine value that the market hasn't fully recognized. The ideal spot is when the line sits at 2.5 or lower, maximizing the edge his 3.2 average provides. Primary risk is game script in blowout scenarios where New Orleans abandons the passing game early, but his consistent target share suggests he'll hit his number in competitive contests.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Juwan Johnson's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Juwan Johnson has gone over his receptions prop in 6 of his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate. This translates to a strong 14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors have lost 23.6% of their investment during this stretch.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Juwan Johnson Receptions last 10 games?
Bet over on Juwan Johnson receptions. His 3.2 average significantly exceeds the typical 2.7 line, creating consistent value. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI indicate the market undervalues his involvement in New Orleans' passing attack.
What's Juwan Johnson's average Receptions last 10 games?
Johnson averages 3.2 receptions over his last 10 games, which is 0.5 receptions above the typical betting line of 2.7. This half-reception edge has translated into profitable over betting opportunities with a 14.6% return on investment.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson reception overs when the line is set at 2.5 or lower, maximizing the value his 3.2 average provides. Avoid betting in potential blowout games where New Orleans might abandon the passing attack early in favor of clock management.