Juwan Johnson has delivered consistent over value across his last 10 games, hitting the over in 60% of contests with a 6-4-0 record. His 35.0 yard average significantly outpaces the typical 28.2 line, creating a profitable +6.8 differential. This represents a clear lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Juwan Johnson's receiving yards trend reveals a tight end finding his rhythm in New Orleans' evolving offensive scheme. The 35.0 yard average against a 28.2 baseline suggests books are consistently undervaluing his involvement, creating a sustainable edge for over bettors. This 6.8 yard differential isn't marginal—it's significant enough to drive the +14.6% ROI on overs. The Saints have increasingly relied on Johnson as a reliable target, particularly in intermediate routes where tight ends thrive. His role appears stable rather than boom-bust, evidenced by the lack of extreme variance in his production. The 60% over rate indicates consistency rather than a few explosive games skewing the average. However, the recent single-game over streak suggests we're not chasing a hot hand but rather betting on established usage patterns. The absence of extreme streaks (longest over just 3 games) actually strengthens the case, showing sustainable production rather than unsustainable variance. Books appear slow to adjust to Johnson's expanded role, making this a classic case of market inefficiency in a secondary receiving option who's become more integral than his props suggest.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 6.8 yard differential above typical lines creates genuine value, supported by a solid 60% hit rate and positive ROI. Johnson's role appears stable in the Saints offense, making this more about consistent usage than explosive upside. The main risk is regression to his historical baseline, but the data suggests an evolved role rather than temporary variance. Target this prop when lines remain in the high 20s range.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 26.5 | 66.0 | +39.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 29.5 | 27.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 35.5 | 12.0 | -23.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 50.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 26.5 | 36.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 28.5 | 30.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 22.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 26.5 | 41.0 | +14.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 19.5 | 48.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-17 | OPP | 26.5 | 18.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Juwan Johnson's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Juwan Johnson has hit the over in 6 of his last 10 games for a 60% success rate. His receiving yards props have generated a +14.6% ROI on overs during this span, significantly outperforming under bets at -23.6% ROI.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Juwan Johnson Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the over on Juwan Johnson's receiving yards. His 35.0 yard average beats the typical 28.2 line by 6.8 yards, creating consistent value. The 60% hit rate and positive ROI support continued over betting with medium confidence.
What's Juwan Johnson's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Juwan Johnson is averaging 35.0 receiving yards over his last 10 games, which runs 6.8 yards above the typical prop line of 28.2. This differential represents meaningful value that books haven't fully adjusted to recognize.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Johnson's receiving yards overs when prop lines remain in the high 20s range, particularly around 28-29 yards. His expanded role in the Saints offense creates the best value when books haven't adjusted to his increased target share.