Justin Herbert's rushing yards have gone under in 60% of his last 10 games despite averaging 18.1 yards against a 15.3 line. The under bets show a positive 14.6% ROI while overs lose at -23.6%. This creates a lean under opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Herbert's rushing yards present a fascinating case study in market inefficiency. While the quarterback averages 18.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games—nearly three yards above the typical 15.3 line—the under has been the profitable play with a 14.6% ROI. This contradiction stems from Herbert's inconsistent rushing floor and the Chargers' evolving offensive philosophy. The 6-4 under record reflects games where Herbert operates primarily from the pocket, minimizing scrambles and designed runs. His rushing production clusters around either explosive games (30+ yards) or minimal output (under 10 yards), creating volatile swings that favor the under when books set lines based on his season average. The current two-game under streak aligns with Los Angeles focusing more on quick-release passing concepts that reduce Herbert's mobility opportunities. Market perception continues to overvalue his rushing upside from earlier career seasons, particularly when the Chargers faced more pressure situations that forced impromptu scrambles. The 40% over rate suggests books haven't fully adjusted to his reduced rushing role in Jim Harbaugh's more structured offensive system, which emphasizes pocket presence over mobility.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% under ROI and 60% hit rate create value despite Herbert exceeding the average line. His rushing production has become increasingly binary—either explosive or minimal—and the Chargers' current offensive structure favors pocket passing over scrambling. Target unders when facing strong pass rushes that keep Herbert contained, but avoid in obvious blowout spots where garbage time could inflate his rushing totals.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 13.5 | 12.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 28.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 0.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 18.5 | 12.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 22.5 | 1.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 21.5 | 29.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 15.5 | 65.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 7.5 | 32.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 2.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Herbert's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Herbert has gone 4-6 over/under on rushing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. Despite averaging 18.1 yards against a 15.3 average line, the under has been more profitable with a 14.6% ROI compared to -23.6% for overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Herbert Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean under on Herbert's rushing yards props. The under has hit 60% of the time with positive ROI despite his high average. His rushing production has become more volatile under the current offensive system, making conservative under bets the smarter long-term play.
What's Justin Herbert's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Herbert averages 18.1 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which is 2.8 yards above the typical 15.3 line. However, this average is skewed by a few explosive rushing games, while the majority of contests see minimal scrambling production from the pocket-focused quarterback.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert rushing yards unders when the Chargers face strong pass rushes that keep him contained in the pocket, or in games with favorable game scripts that don't require scrambling. Avoid in potential blowout losses where garbage time could inflate his rushing totals significantly.