Justin Herbert's passing touchdown props have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, going 5-5-0 with a slight under lean averaging 1.4 TDs versus the typical 1.5 line. The -4.5% ROI on both sides signals efficient market pricing with minimal edge available.
Expert Analysis
Herbert's touchdown production has been remarkably consistent yet underwhelming, averaging exactly one touchdown below the standard 1.5 line across this 10-game sample. This 1.4 average represents a meaningful gap that suggests either the market hasn't adjusted to his current red zone efficiency or external factors are suppressing his scoring opportunities. The Chargers' offensive system under this coaching staff appears to limit Herbert's touchdown ceiling, possibly due to increased rushing attempts near the goal line or conservative play-calling in scoring situations. The 50% hit rate indicates neither systematic over-performance nor consistent struggles, but rather a player whose touchdown output has become predictably modest. Herbert's physical tools remain elite, but touchdown production depends heavily on red zone opportunities and play-calling tendencies that may have shifted. The current streak of one under suggests recent games have followed this pattern, though the relatively balanced longer streaks (4 overs max, 3 unders max) indicate volatility remains present. Without significant injury concerns or dramatic scheme changes, this trend appears rooted in situational usage rather than declining ability, making it potentially sustainable if the underlying factors persist.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Herbert's consistent underperformance of the 1.5 line by 0.1 touchdowns per game creates a slight mathematical edge, though the balanced 5-5 record prevents high conviction. Target unders when facing strong red zone defenses or in games with expected low scoring environments. The primary risk is positive touchdown regression if the Chargers increase their red zone aggression or Herbert's goal line opportunities expand.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-25 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Herbert's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Herbert has gone 5-5-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs with a perfectly balanced record that shows no clear directional bias.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Herbert Passing TDs last 10 games?
Lean under on Herbert's passing touchdown props. He's averaging 1.4 TDs against the typical 1.5 line, creating a small mathematical edge for under bettors despite the balanced record.
What's Justin Herbert's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Herbert is averaging 1.4 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games, which sits 0.1 touchdowns below the standard 1.5 line, indicating consistent slight underperformance of market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Herbert touchdown unders against strong red zone defenses or in games with low total expectations. Avoid when the Chargers face weak defenses or in potential shootout scenarios.