Justin Fields rushing yards props present a clear under opportunity with books consistently overvaluing his ground production. His 33.3% over rate (6-12-0) and -6.0 yard average differential from the line signal systematic market inefficiency. The under offers strong value at current pricing.
Expert Analysis
The market's infatuation with Justin Fields' rushing ability has created a persistent pricing error that sharp bettors can exploit. Despite his reputation as a mobile quarterback, Fields averages just 46.17 rushing yards per game against lines averaging 52.17 yards—a significant 6.0 yard shortfall that indicates books are pricing in highlight-reel potential rather than consistent production. This isn't a small sample fluke; across 18 games spanning multiple seasons and teams, Fields has hit the over just 33.3% of the time. The -36.4% ROI on overs tells the complete story of a market that refuses to adjust despite overwhelming evidence. Pittsburgh's offensive system likely compounds this trend, as the Steelers traditionally emphasize pocket presence and designed runs rather than scrambling opportunities. Fields' rushing production appears more volatile than sustainable, with his longest over streak reaching just two games while under streaks extend to four games. The market seems anchored to his Chicago days and college reputation, creating a systematic edge for under bettors who focus on actual game-by-game production rather than perceived athleticism.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 27.3% ROI on unders combined with Fields consistently falling short of inflated lines creates a sustainable edge. Target this prop when lines exceed 50 yards, as the market's bias toward his rushing upside becomes most pronounced. Primary risk is a breakout rushing performance in a blowout scenario, but the data suggests betting under Justin Fields rushing yards offers consistent profit potential.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 39.5 | 59.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 46.5 | 27.0 | -19.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 39.5 | 55.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 42.5 | 6.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 45.5 | 27.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 56.5 | 27.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 54.5 | 45.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 56.5 | 97.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 57.5 | 30.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 63.5 | 58.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 53.5 | 59.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 48.5 | 104.0 | +55.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 52.5 | 46.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-05 | OPP | 45.5 | 57.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 58.5 | 25.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Fields's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Justin Fields has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 6 of 18 games (33.3% rate) with a 6-12-0 record. He averages 46.17 rushing yards per game against an average line of 52.17 yards, falling short by 6.0 yards per game consistently.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Fields Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Justin Fields rushing yards props. The 27.3% ROI on unders and his consistent failure to reach inflated lines creates a clear edge. Target props when the line exceeds 50 yards for maximum value.
What's Justin Fields's average Rushing Yards all games?
Justin Fields averages 46.17 rushing yards per game across his 18-game sample. This falls 6.0 yards short of the average line of 52.17 yards, indicating the market consistently overvalues his rushing production by nearly a full yard per carry.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Justin Fields rushing yards unders when lines exceed 50 yards, as market bias peaks at higher numbers. Avoid betting after big rushing games when recency bias might temporarily correct the line downward.