Justin Fields has been a touchdown underperformer over his last 10 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time while averaging 0.8 passing touchdowns against a 1.1 line. The -0.3 differential and +14.6% under ROI signal a clear edge exists on the under side.
Expert Analysis
Fields' touchdown struggles stem from Pittsburgh's conservative offensive philosophy and his role as more of a game manager than a volume passer. The 0.8 average against a 1.1 line represents a meaningful 27% underperformance that reflects both his limited passing attempts and the Steelers' preference for establishing the run game. This isn't simply variance - Fields has consistently failed to reach even modest touchdown totals, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his reduced role in Pittsburgh's system compared to his Chicago days. The 4-6 over/under record shows he's hitting the over in just two out of every five games, creating a sustainable edge for under bettors. What's particularly compelling is the consistency of this underperformance - Fields isn't alternating between huge games and duds, but rather consistently falling short of modest expectations. The Steelers' methodical approach and emphasis on field position over explosive plays limits his touchdown ceiling. While regression is always possible, the underlying offensive structure suggests this trend has staying power, especially when Pittsburgh faces competent defenses that force them into their comfort zone of conservative play-calling.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Fields' consistent underperformance against modest lines reflects Pittsburgh's conservative offensive approach rather than random variance. The ideal spot is when his line sits at 1.0 or higher, particularly against defenses that can limit big plays and force methodical drives. The primary risk is a potential offensive explosion if Pittsburgh falls behind early and abandons their ground-heavy game plan.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Fields's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Fields is 4-6 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% while averaging 0.8 touchdowns against typical lines of 1.1. This 4-6 record translates to a -23.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Fields Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Fields' passing touchdowns. His 0.8 average against 1.1 lines and 40% over rate create a clear mathematical edge, especially when Pittsburgh's conservative offense limits his touchdown opportunities consistently.
What's Justin Fields's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Fields averages 0.8 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.1. This -0.3 differential represents a 27% underperformance that has generated positive returns for under bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Fields touchdown unders when his line is 1.0 or higher, particularly against solid defenses that force Pittsburgh into their preferred methodical, run-heavy approach rather than explosive passing games.