Justin Fields presents a clear under opportunity in passing touchdown props, hitting over just 43.8% of the time across 16 games with a -16.5% ROI on overs. His 1.0 touchdown average sits below typical 1.5 lines, creating consistent value on unders.
Expert Analysis
Fields' passing touchdown struggles stem from his dual-threat profile limiting red zone passing opportunities. His mobility often leads to designed runs near the goal line, capping his touchdown ceiling while creating a floor through his legs. The 1.0 average against 1.06 lines reveals books haven't fully adjusted to his rushing-heavy approach in scoring situations. Pittsburgh's conservative offensive philosophy under Arthur Smith further suppresses passing volume, particularly in high-leverage situations where Fields' legs become the primary weapon. The -0.1 differential appears minimal but represents consistent value when the standard line sits at 1.5. His longest under streak of four games demonstrates the sustainability of this trend, while even his best three-game over streak couldn't overcome the broader pattern. The 56.2% under rate isn't overwhelming but becomes profitable given the typical juice structure on these props. Fields' transition to Pittsburgh hasn't changed his fundamental profile as a quarterback who creates more value with his legs than his arm in the red zone, making this trend likely to persist.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Fields' rushing ability consistently caps his passing touchdown upside, creating sustainable value on unders against standard 1.5 lines. Target games where Pittsburgh faces tough defenses that will force more conservative red zone play-calling. Main risk is a blowout scenario where garbage time passing inflates his numbers, but his 43.8% over rate suggests this rarely materializes.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-05 | OPP | 0.5 | 4.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justin Fields's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Fields has gone over his passing touchdown prop in just 7 of 16 games (43.8%), delivering a disappointing -16.5% ROI for over bettors while under bettors enjoyed +7.4% returns.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justin Fields Passing TDs all games?
Bet under on Fields' passing touchdowns. His 1.0 average sits well below typical 1.5 lines, and his dual-threat profile consistently limits red zone passing opportunities in favor of designed runs.
What's Justin Fields's average Passing TDs all games?
Fields averages exactly 1.0 passing touchdown per game, sitting 0.1 below his average line of 1.06. This small but consistent gap creates value when standard props are set at 1.5.
How reliable is this trend?
Target under bets when Fields faces strong defenses that will force conservative red zone play-calling. Avoid games with high totals where blowout scenarios might create garbage time passing opportunities.