Justice Hill's rushing yards have been a coin flip over his last 10 games, hitting over 50% of the time with a modest 3.3-yard average edge over the betting line. Despite the positive differential, negative ROI on both sides suggests the market is efficiently pricing his props, making this a challenging spot for consistent profit.
Expert Analysis
Justice Hill's rushing yards production presents a fascinating case study in backup running back volatility within Baltimore's complex offensive ecosystem. His 14.4-yard average significantly outpaces the 11.1-yard betting line, creating a substantial 3.3-yard cushion that initially appears favorable for over bettors. However, the negative ROI on both sides reveals the market's sophistication in pricing Hill's inherent unpredictability. The Ravens' committee approach means Hill's touches fluctuate wildly based on game script, Derrick Henry's workload, and situational football needs. His role as a change-of-pace back creates feast-or-famine scenarios where he either breaks a long run or gets minimal touches in blowouts. The current three-game over streak suggests recent offensive coordinator adjustments may be favoring Hill's skill set, but regression remains likely given his limited snap share. Baltimore's improved passing game efficiency has reduced garbage-time rushing opportunities, while their dominant defense often creates positive game scripts that favor Henry's power running style over Hill's speed-based approach.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 3.3-yard positive differential provides mathematical value despite the concerning ROI metrics. Hill's current three-game over streak coincides with Baltimore's playoff push, where his versatility becomes more valuable in situational packages. However, the negative ROI on both sides signals sharp money has identified this prop's unpredictability. Target overs in competitive games where Baltimore needs multiple offensive weapons, but avoid in potential blowouts either direction.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-19 | OPP | 9.5 | 50.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 9.5 | 30.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 7.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 14.5 | 5.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-21 | OPP | 11.5 | 4.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justice Hill's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Hill has gone 5-5 over/under on his rushing yards props in his last 10 games, hitting exactly 50% of overs. His average of 14.4 yards significantly exceeds the typical 11.1-yard betting line by 3.3 yards per game.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justice Hill Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over with low confidence. The 3.3-yard positive differential provides mathematical edge, and Hill's current three-game over streak suggests increased usage. However, negative ROI on both sides indicates sharp money recognizes his volatility makes consistent profits difficult.
What's Justice Hill's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Hill averages 14.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average betting line of 11.1 yards. This creates a favorable 3.3-yard differential, though negative ROI suggests the market efficiently adjusts for his inconsistent usage patterns.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Hill rushing yards overs in competitive games where Baltimore needs multiple offensive weapons and avoid potential blowouts. His three-game over streak during the playoff push suggests increased situational usage, making close games the optimal betting environment.