Justice Hill's rushing yards prop at home presents a compelling over opportunity with a 75% hit rate across 12 games. The Ravens running back averages 25.67 rushing yards at home against lines averaging 17.33, creating an 8.3-yard edge. This trend strongly favors the over.
Expert Analysis
Justice Hill's home rushing dominance stems from Baltimore's offensive philosophy at M&T Bank Stadium, where the Ravens utilize their complementary backs more aggressively in favorable game scripts. The 8.3-yard differential between Hill's home average and typical prop lines suggests oddsmakers consistently undervalue his role in the Ravens' ground attack when playing at home. Hill benefits from Baltimore's tendency to control games at home, leading to increased rushing attempts across their backfield rotation. The 43.2% ROI on overs indicates substantial market inefficiency, while the devastating -52.3% under ROI confirms this isn't variance but systematic underpricing. Hill's usage patterns at home likely reflect the Ravens' comfort level with their depth chart and willingness to rest Lamar Jackson's legs when leading. The current two-game over streak aligns with the broader trend rather than suggesting imminent regression. However, the lack of split data limits our ability to identify specific game conditions that maximize Hill's opportunities. The trend's persistence across nearly a full season suggests structural factors rather than random clustering, making this a high-conviction play when Hill's home props surface.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Justice Hill's 75% over rate at home combined with the 8.3-yard average differential creates a clear edge that oddsmakers haven't corrected. Target this prop when Hill's home line sits below 20 yards, as the Ravens' complementary back role expands in favorable home environments. The primary risk is potential rest if Baltimore builds massive leads, but the trend's consistency suggests this concern is overblown.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 8.5 | 12.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 9.5 | 30.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 8.5 | 6.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 10.5 | 15.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 15.5 | 2.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 18.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 34.5 | 3.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-20 | OPP | 20.5 | 66.0 | +45.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 30.5 | 48.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 26.5 | 46.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Justice Hill's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Justice Hill has gone over his rushing yards prop in 9 of 12 home games (75% rate) with an average of 25.67 yards per game. This strong over trend spans from October 2023 through January 2025.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Justice Hill Rushing Yards home games?
Bet the over on Justice Hill's rushing yards in home games. The 75% over rate and 8.3-yard average differential above typical lines create a clear edge that the market hasn't corrected.
What's Justice Hill's average Rushing Yards home games?
Justice Hill averages 25.67 rushing yards in home games compared to typical prop lines around 17.33 yards. This 8.3-yard positive differential has produced consistent over results across 12 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Justice Hill rushing yards overs when Baltimore plays at home with lines below 20 yards. The Ravens' complementary back usage increases at M&T Bank Stadium, especially in favorable game scripts.