JuJu Smith-Schuster has been a consistent under play, hitting just 40% overs across his last 10 games while averaging 34.8 receiving yards against a 12.4 line. Despite the massive +22.4 differential favoring overs, the under has delivered a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have burned at -23.6%.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a fascinating story of market inefficiency around Smith-Schuster's role in Kansas City's offense. While his 34.8-yard average absolutely crushes the 12.4 line, bettors backing overs have somehow lost money at a brutal -23.6% clip. This suggests the market is consistently setting inflated numbers that Smith-Schuster can't reach despite his solid production floor. The Chiefs' offensive evolution has relegated Smith-Schuster to a complementary role behind Travis Kelce and the emerging receiver corps, creating predictable usage patterns that sharp bettors can exploit. His 4-6 over record indicates he's more likely to fall short of inflated expectations than exceed them, even when producing respectable yardage totals. The current streak of one under suggests recent market adjustments, but the underlying role limitations remain. Kansas City's tendency to spread targets and rely heavily on Kelce in crucial situations caps Smith-Schuster's ceiling, making unders the mathematically superior play despite his consistent involvement in the passing game.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 14.6% ROI on unders combined with Smith-Schuster's capped role in Kansas City's offense creates a sustainable edge. Target this play when lines inflate above 40 yards or in games where the Chiefs project to control pace and limit passing volume. The main risk is a potential target spike if other receivers face injury or the game script demands heavy passing, but his complementary role makes unders the superior long-term strategy.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-09 | OPP | 16.5 | 16.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-26 | OPP | 6.5 | 60.0 | +53.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 14.5 | 7.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 14.5 | 31.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 13.5 | 6.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 17.5 | 8.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-07 | OPP | 15.5 | 130.0 | +114.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-07 | OPP | 13.5 | 90.0 | +76.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
Compare JuJu Smith-Schuster props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is JuJu Smith-Schuster's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Smith-Schuster has gone 4-6 over/under on receiving yards props in his last 10 games, hitting just 40% of overs. He's averaging 34.8 yards against a typical 12.4 line, creating a massive +22.4 differential that hasn't translated to profitable over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on JuJu Smith-Schuster Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Smith-Schuster's receiving yards. Despite his solid 34.8-yard average, unders have delivered 14.6% ROI while overs have lost money at -23.6%. His complementary role in Kansas City's offense creates a predictable ceiling that the market consistently overvalues.
What's JuJu Smith-Schuster's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Smith-Schuster averages 34.8 receiving yards over his last 10 games against a 12.4 average line, creating a +22.4 differential. While this massive gap favors overs mathematically, his 40% over rate and role limitations make unders more profitable long-term.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Smith-Schuster receiving yards unders when lines inflate above 40 yards or in games where Kansas City projects to control pace. His complementary role behind Kelce creates the most value when the market overestimates his ceiling in favorable matchups.