Joshua Dobbs has quietly delivered over value in 60% of his last 10 games, posting a solid +14.6% ROI on overs despite averaging just 0.4 yards above his typical line. This marginal edge suggests books are pricing him accurately, making this more of a lean over situation than a strong play.
Expert Analysis
The Dobbs passing yards trend reveals a quarterback who consistently meets expectations without dramatically exceeding them. His 208.3-yard average sits barely above the 207.91 line, indicating sportsbooks have dialed in his range effectively. The 60% over rate translates to meaningful profit (+14.6% ROI) because even small margins compound over volume when you're right more often than wrong. What makes Dobbs intriguing is his role versatility - whether starting due to injury or coming off the bench, he's shown remarkable consistency in hitting his number. The lack of extreme variance suggests he operates within a defined system that doesn't ask him to be a gunslinger. However, this same predictability means books are unlikely to misprice him significantly. The moderate 6-4 over record indicates he's neither a lock nor a fade, but rather a player who slightly outperforms modest expectations. His recent streak patterns (longest over run of 3, longest under of 2) show he doesn't get stuck in extended hot or cold periods, making each game relatively independent. The key concern is sample size - 10 games provides insight but may not capture his full range, especially given his journeyman status and varying team contexts.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dobbs has shown a slight but consistent tendency to exceed his passing yards lines, making the over a marginal value play. The +14.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable profit potential, though the small average differential means you're betting on consistency rather than explosiveness. Best approached as a small unit play when the line sits around his 208-yard average, avoiding games where books adjust significantly higher.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 195.5 | 326.0 | +130.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 218.5 | 63.0 | -155.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 227.5 | 185.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 218.5 | 221.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 203.5 | 268.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 192.6 | 208.0 | +15.4 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 209.5 | 146.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 215.5 | 235.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 214.5 | 166.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 183.5 | 265.0 | +81.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joshua Dobbs's Passing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Joshua Dobbs has gone over his passing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% over rate), posting a 6-4 over/under record. This translates to a +14.6% ROI for over bettors during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joshua Dobbs Passing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Joshua Dobbs passing yards props. His 60% over rate and +14.6% ROI on overs shows consistent value, though the small 0.4-yard average differential above his line suggests modest rather than explosive upside potential.
What's Joshua Dobbs's average Passing Yards last 10 games?
Joshua Dobbs has averaged 208.3 passing yards over his last 10 games, compared to an average line of 207.91 yards. This minimal +0.4 differential shows he consistently meets but rarely dramatically exceeds expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Dobbs passing yards overs when his line sits near his 208-yard average, avoiding games where books adjust significantly higher. His consistency makes him ideal for smaller unit plays rather than heavy investments.