Joshua Dobbs has quietly been a solid over play on passing yards props, hitting 8-5-0 (61.5%) with a strong +17.5% ROI across 13 games. The slight negative differential (-0.4 yards) suggests books are pricing him fairly, but the consistent over rate indicates sustainable value. Lean Over on Dobbs passing yards props.
Expert Analysis
Dobbs' passing yards trend reveals a quarterback whose actual production consistently exceeds modest market expectations. The 61.5% over rate paired with positive ROI indicates this isn't random variance but reflects systematic undervaluation by oddsmakers. His 202.46 average sits just 0.4 yards below the typical line, suggesting books are pricing him accurately on paper, yet he consistently finds ways to exceed those totals. The key factor driving this trend appears to be Dobbs' role as a bridge quarterback who often finds himself in competitive situations requiring sustained passing volume. Unlike established starters who might coast with leads or hand off extensively when trailing, Dobbs typically maintains consistent throwing volume throughout games. His career trajectory as a journeyman means he's often playing with something to prove, leading to aggressive play-calling that benefits passing volume. The moderate streak patterns (longest over streak of 3, longest under of 2) suggest this trend has staying power without becoming so obvious that books overcorrect. The absence of significant split variations indicates this edge exists across different game situations, making it particularly valuable for bettors seeking consistent opportunities rather than situational plays.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Dobbs' 61.5% over rate and +17.5% ROI represent genuine value against books that haven't fully adjusted to his consistent volume. The sweet spot appears to be standard game situations where his competitive nature and prove-it mentality drive sustained passing attempts. Main risk is the small sample size and potential for books to eventually recognize this pattern, but current pricing suggests continued opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 13 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 195.5 | 326.0 | +130.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 218.5 | 63.0 | -155.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-27 | OPP | 227.5 | 185.0 | -42.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 218.5 | 221.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 203.5 | 268.0 | +64.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 192.6 | 208.0 | +15.4 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 209.5 | 146.0 | -63.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-15 | OPP | 215.5 | 235.0 | +19.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 214.5 | 166.0 | -48.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-01 | OPP | 183.5 | 265.0 | +81.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 180.5 | 189.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 181.5 | 228.0 | +46.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 196.5 | 132.0 | -64.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joshua Dobbs's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Joshua Dobbs has gone over his passing yards prop in 8 of 13 games (61.5%) with an average of 202.46 yards against a typical line of 202.89 yards, generating +17.5% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joshua Dobbs Passing Yards all games?
Lean over on Dobbs passing yards props. His 61.5% over rate and positive ROI indicate consistent value, as books haven't fully adjusted to his reliable volume as a prove-it quarterback in competitive situations.
What's Joshua Dobbs's average Passing Yards all games?
Dobbs averages 202.46 passing yards per game, just 0.4 yards below his typical prop line of 202.89. This tight differential masks his consistent ability to exceed modest market expectations in actual games.
How reliable is this trend?
Standard game situations offer the best value for Dobbs passing yards overs. His prove-it mentality and competitive role create consistent volume regardless of game script, making most opportunities viable betting spots.