Josh Reynolds has been a consistent under performer in receptions props, hitting over just 30.0% of the time across his last 10 games with a 3-7-0 record. The -0.2 differential between his 2.2 average and typical 2.4 lines creates clear value on unders with +33.6% ROI.
Expert Analysis
Reynolds' reception struggles stem from Jacksonville's offensive dysfunction and his role as a complementary piece rather than featured target. The 2.2 average against 2.4 lines suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his diminished usage patterns in this system. His current three-game under streak aligns with the broader trend of inconsistent target distribution in Jacksonville's pass-heavy but inefficient offense. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells the story of a player consistently failing to reach inflated expectations, while the +33.6% under ROI demonstrates sustainable value. Reynolds operates primarily as a possession receiver whose volume depends heavily on game script and red zone opportunities, both of which have been limited. The lack of a single dominant over streak (longest is just 2 games) indicates this isn't random variance but a systematic underperformance. Jacksonville's tendency to abandon the pass in competitive games further limits Reynolds' ceiling, making him a prime candidate for continued under performance until usage patterns or offensive efficiency dramatically improve.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Reynolds' 30% over rate and negative differential create clear value on reception unders, especially with the current three-game streak supporting the trend. The ideal conditions involve competitive game scripts where Jacksonville doesn't need to force targets. Main risk is a potential breakout game that could temporarily inflate his numbers, but the systematic nature of his underperformance suggests continued value on unders.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 2.5 | 0.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-21 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Josh Reynolds's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Reynolds has gone 3-7-0 on receptions overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of over bets. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among wide receivers with significant sample size.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Josh Reynolds Receptions last 10 games?
Bet under on Reynolds receptions. The 30% over rate, -0.2 average differential, and +33.6% under ROI create clear value. His role in Jacksonville's offense consistently produces fewer receptions than oddsmakers expect.
What's Josh Reynolds's average Receptions last 10 games?
Reynolds averages 2.2 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 2.4, creating a -0.2 differential. This gap represents the core value proposition for under bettors on his reception props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Reynolds reception unders in competitive games where Jacksonville doesn't need to force volume through the air. Avoid during potential blowout losses where garbage time could inflate his numbers beyond typical usage patterns.