Jordan Love's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -42.7% ROI on the over side. His 6.4-yard average barely exceeds typical 5.9-yard lines, creating consistent value on unders despite the modest +0.5 differential.
Expert Analysis
Love's rushing struggles stem from Green Bay's pass-heavy offensive philosophy and his natural pocket-passing tendencies. Unlike dual-threat quarterbacks who manufacture rushing yards through designed runs, Love's mobility serves primarily as an escape valve rather than a featured element. The Packers' offensive line improvements have actually worked against rushing prop overs, giving Love cleaner pockets and reducing scramble opportunities. His 6.4-yard average reflects occasional longer scrambles padding modest totals rather than consistent rushing production. The 30% over rate indicates books haven't fully adjusted lines to reflect his limited ground impact. Love's three-game under streak earlier this season demonstrates how quickly these props can cascade when game scripts favor quick passing attacks. The concerning -42.7% ROI on overs suggests systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who may be pricing in mobility that simply doesn't translate to meaningful rushing production. Green Bay's red zone efficiency through the air further limits short-yardage rushing opportunities that typically boost quarterback ground totals. With no significant split advantages identified, Love's rushing props appear consistently overpriced regardless of opponent or game situation, making this trend particularly reliable for disciplined under betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 30% over rate and brutal -42.7% over ROI create systematic value on rushing unders, though the modest +0.5 average differential prevents this from being a high-conviction play. Target unders when facing strong pass rushes that force quick releases, or in potential blowout scenarios where Love won't need to extend plays. The primary risk is a single long scramble inflating his total, but Green Bay's offensive system consistently limits his ground opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 23.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 18.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jordan Love has gone over his rushing yards prop in just 3 of his last 10 games (30% rate), with under bettors enjoying a 33.6% ROI while over bettors suffered a brutal -42.7% loss rate during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Bet under on Love's rushing yards props. His 30% over rate and the under side's 33.6% ROI create consistent value, as books appear to overestimate his ground mobility within Green Bay's pass-first offensive system.
What's Jordan Love's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Love averages 6.4 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 5.9 yards. While he barely exceeds the line on average, the low 30% over rate shows this modest edge rarely translates to profitable overs.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love rushing unders when Green Bay faces strong pass rushes forcing quick releases, or in games with favorable passing game scripts. His limited mobility within the Packers' system creates the most consistent value regardless of opponent.