Jordan Love's divisional rushing yards show a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 over/under record with minimal edge either direction. His 12.5-yard average beats the typical 8.8 line by 3.7 yards, but negative ROI on both sides suggests efficient market pricing that leaves little value.
Expert Analysis
Love's divisional rushing performance reveals a quarterback whose mobility is consistently undervalued by oddsmakers but overbet by the public. The 3.7-yard positive differential between his average (12.5) and typical line (8.8) indicates books are pricing him conservatively, likely accounting for his pocket-passing reputation. However, the negative ROI on both sides tells a more complex story. Divisional games often feature tighter defensive schemes and more conservative game plans, which can limit designed runs while increasing scramble opportunities when pocket protection breaks down. The perfectly even 5-5 split suggests Love's rushing production is highly situational rather than predictably trending in either direction. His mobility emerges more from necessity than design, making his rushing yards heavily dependent on game script, opponent pass rush effectiveness, and weather conditions. The lack of a clear pattern over 10 games indicates this prop is efficiently priced, with variance driven more by game-specific factors than exploitable tendencies. The alternating streaks (longest of just 2 games either way) reinforce that Love's divisional rushing is more reactive than systematic, responding to immediate game conditions rather than following predictable patterns that create betting edges.
Betting Verdict
PASS with LOW confidence. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record and negative ROI on both sides indicate an efficiently priced market with no clear edge. While Love's 12.5-yard average exceeds typical lines, the lack of profitable patterns over 10 divisional games suggests this prop is best avoided unless specific game conditions strongly favor scrambling opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 23.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 18.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 8.5 | -1.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 2.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 15.5 | 39.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 13.5 | 34.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 16.5 | -2.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jordan Love props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Rushing Yards prop record divisional games?
Jordan Love's rushing yards prop in divisional games shows a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 over/under record across 10 games from 2023-2024. This 50.0% over rate indicates no clear directional bias in his divisional rushing performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Rushing Yards divisional games?
Pass on Jordan Love's divisional rushing yards props. Despite his 12.5-yard average beating typical 8.8 lines, the negative ROI on both overs (-4.5%) and unders (-4.5%) indicates an efficiently priced market with no profitable edge.
What's Jordan Love's average Rushing Yards divisional games?
Jordan Love averages 12.5 rushing yards in divisional games, which is 3.7 yards above the typical 8.8-yard line. This positive differential suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers, though betting returns remain negative despite the apparent value.
How reliable is this trend?
Avoid betting Jordan Love's rushing yards props in divisional games due to efficient market pricing. If forced to bet, target games with expected negative game script or strong opposing pass rushes that increase scrambling likelihood.