Jordan Love's rushing yards props present a clear under bias with just 40.6% overs across 32 games. The Packers quarterback averages 10.25 yards against a typical 9.5 line, but the under delivers 13.3% ROI while overs lose 22.4%. This creates a systematic edge favoring the under.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Love's rushing profile reveals a quarterback whose mobility is consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. Averaging 10.25 yards per game against 9.5-yard lines suggests Love provides modest rushing production, but the 40.6% over rate exposes significant line inflation. The Packers' offensive system under Matt LaFleur emphasizes pocket passing and designed rollouts rather than quarterback scrambles. Love's rushing attempts typically come from broken plays or short-yardage situations, creating inconsistent volume. His 13-19 under record demonstrates that sportsbooks haven't adjusted adequately to his pocket-first approach. The -22.4% ROI on overs indicates systematic overpricing, while the 13.3% under ROI confirms betting value. Love's rushing yards correlate heavily with game script—he scrambles more when trailing but the Packers' improved defense limits negative game scripts. His limited designed runs and preference for extending plays in the pocket rather than taking off create a ceiling on rushing production. The five-game under streak maximum suggests some volatility, but the overall trend reflects his true rushing ceiling being lower than market perception.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 13.3% under ROI and 59.4% under rate create consistent value despite the modest 0.75-yard average shortfall. Love's pocket-first style and LaFleur's system limit rushing upside. Target unders in favorable game scripts when Green Bay projects to lead, as Love becomes even more conservative. Main risk is overtime games or significant trailing situations forcing scrambles.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 7.5 | 10.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 6.5 | 6.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 5.5 | 4.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 23.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 5.5 | 0.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 5.5 | 2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 5.5 | 18.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 4.5 | 0.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 7.5 | -1.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 8.5 | 0.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 6.5 | 13.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 4.5 | 10.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-06 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Jordan Love has gone under his rushing yards prop in 19 of 32 games (59.4%) with an average of 10.25 yards per game. His over record stands at just 13-19, making unders the more reliable play across his sample.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Jordan Love's rushing yards props. The 59.4% under rate and 13.3% ROI create consistent value, while overs lose money at -22.4%. His pocket-first style supports this trend continuing.
What's Jordan Love's average Rushing Yards all games?
Jordan Love averages 10.25 rushing yards per game, just 0.75 yards above typical 9.5-yard lines. Despite this modest edge, he goes under 59.4% of the time, indicating the market consistently overvalues his rushing production.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love rushing yards unders when Green Bay projects to lead or in neutral game scripts. His conservative pocket style becomes more pronounced with leads, while trailing situations create the main risk for increased scrambling.