Jordan Love's passing touchdown props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30.0% of overs across his last 10 games with a brutal 3-7-0 record. Currently riding a four-game under streak, Love averages only 1.0 passing touchdowns against typical 1.5 lines. The under trend shows strong conviction.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Love's touchdown production has been remarkably consistent in disappointing fashion, creating one of the cleaner under trends in the NFL. Averaging exactly 1.0 passing touchdowns per game over this 10-game sample, Love consistently falls short of the standard 1.5 line that books typically set for starting quarterbacks. The -42.7% ROI on overs tells a stark story of systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers who continue pricing Love as a more prolific scorer than his recent performance suggests. This isn't a small sample fluke—10 games represents nearly two-thirds of a full season, providing substantial statistical weight. The current four-game under streak demonstrates the persistence of this trend, suggesting underlying factors beyond random variance. Love's touchdown struggles likely stem from Green Bay's offensive approach, red zone efficiency issues, or his development curve as a relatively inexperienced starter. The 33.6% ROI on unders indicates significant betting value, as the market appears slow to adjust to Love's actual touchdown production levels. Without clear catalysts for dramatic improvement in scoring output, this trend shows strong potential for continuation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 1.0 touchdown average creates consistent value against 1.5+ lines, supported by a four-game under streak and strong historical ROI. The trend appears systematic rather than random, suggesting continued market inefficiency. Primary risk involves potential offensive scheme changes or improved red zone execution that could elevate his scoring rate moving forward.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-12 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Jordan Love has gone 3-7-0 on passing touchdown overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 30.0% of over bets. This represents one of the more reliable under trends among starting quarterbacks this season.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the under on Jordan Love's passing touchdowns. His 1.0 average consistently falls short of typical 1.5 lines, and the four-game under streak shows this trend has strong momentum with proven profitability.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Jordan Love averages exactly 1.0 passing touchdowns per game over his last 10 outings, creating a consistent half-touchdown gap below the standard 1.5 line that books typically set for starting quarterbacks.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Love's touchdown unders when lines are set at 1.5 or higher, especially during his current four-game under streak. The trend shows strongest value against standard quarterback pricing that hasn't adjusted to his production.