Jordan Love's passing touchdown prop at home shows modest over value with a 53.3% hit rate (8-7-0 record) and averages 1.67 touchdowns against a typical 1.5 line. The +1.8% ROI on overs suggests slight profitable edge. Lean over in favorable matchups.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Love's home passing touchdown performance reveals a quarterback finding his rhythm in familiar surroundings. Averaging 1.67 touchdowns per home game against the standard 1.5 line creates a meaningful 0.17 touchdown cushion that translates to sustainable value. The 53.3% over rate isn't overwhelming, but the positive ROI on overs (+1.8%) versus the significant under losses (-10.9%) indicates the market may be undervaluing Love's red zone efficiency at Lambeau Field. His current two-game under streak follows his longest over streak of six games, suggesting natural variance rather than a fundamental shift in performance. The Packers' offensive system under Matt LaFleur emphasizes red zone passing, particularly in home games where crowd noise doesn't impact communication. Love's comfort level in Green Bay's system has grown throughout his tenure as starter, with home games providing the ideal environment for his developing chemistry with receivers. However, weather conditions at Lambeau can impact passing games late in the season, and Love's relative inexperience means he's more susceptible to defensive adjustments than veteran quarterbacks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Love's 1.67 home average provides consistent value against the 1.5 line, supported by positive over ROI despite modest hit rates. Target games against weaker pass defenses or when weather conditions favor passing. The main risk is Love's inconsistency and Lambeau's weather impact on late-season games.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing TDs prop record home games?
Jordan Love has gone over his passing touchdowns prop in 8 of 15 home games (53.3% rate) with a 8-7-0 record. He's averaging 1.67 touchdowns per home game, consistently beating the typical 1.5 line.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing TDs home games?
Lean over on Jordan Love's passing touchdowns at home. His 1.67 average beats the standard 1.5 line, and overs show positive ROI (+1.8%) while unders lose significantly (-10.9%). Target favorable matchups.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing TDs home games?
Jordan Love averages 1.67 passing touchdowns in home games, which is 0.17 touchdowns above the standard 1.5 line. This differential provides consistent value for over bettors in the right situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Best opportunities come against weaker pass defenses in good weather conditions at Lambeau Field. Avoid late-season games with harsh weather, and consider fading after extended over streaks due to Love's variance patterns.