Jordan Love's passing touchdown props in divisional games present a compelling under opportunity, hitting just 36.4% overs across 11 games with a brutal -0.1 differential to the standard 1.5 line. Currently riding a five-game under streak, this trend offers significant value for disciplined bettors targeting NFC North matchups.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Jordan Love's struggles against divisional opponents, where familiarity breeds defensive success. His 1.45 average against the 1.5 line represents consistent underperformance that extends beyond random variance. Divisional games typically feature more conservative game plans, tighter defensive schemes, and weather complications that limit explosive passing plays. Love's -30.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how the market consistently overvalues his touchdown potential in these heated rivalries. The five-game under streak suggests defensive coordinators have identified exploitable patterns in Green Bay's red zone offense. What makes this trend particularly compelling is the persistence across different game scripts and opponent strengths. Unlike yardage props that can spike with garbage time, touchdown props require sustained offensive efficiency in scoring situations. Love's divisional touchdown rate indicates he either struggles with red zone decision-making under pressure or faces defensive units that have studied his tendencies extensively. The 21.5% ROI on unders provides mathematical validation of this edge, though bettors should monitor for potential regression as Love gains experience and the Packers potentially adjust their red zone packages.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Jordan Love's divisional touchdown props offer legitimate value based on his 1.45 average significantly trailing the 1.5 line. The ideal conditions involve cold weather games at Lambeau or road divisional matchups where defensive familiarity limits explosive plays. Primary risk centers on potential offensive evolution as Love matures, but the current sample size and consistency of underperformance justify continued under exposure.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Love's Passing TDs prop record divisional games?
Jordan Love has gone over his passing touchdown prop in just 4 of 11 divisional games (36.4% rate) with a 4-7-0 record. His average of 1.45 touchdowns consistently falls short of the typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.1 differential that favors under bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Love Passing TDs divisional games?
Bet under on Jordan Love's passing touchdowns in divisional games. The 36.4% over rate and five-game under streak provide clear statistical evidence, while the 21.5% ROI on unders offers measurable profit potential against NFC North opponents who know his tendencies.
What's Jordan Love's average Passing TDs divisional games?
Jordan Love averages 1.45 passing touchdowns in divisional games, falling 0.1 touchdowns below the standard 1.5 line. This consistent underperformance across 11 games suggests the market overvalues his scoring potential against familiar NFC North defenses that have extensive film study.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Love's passing touchdown unders during cold weather divisional games at Lambeau Field or challenging road environments. The combination of defensive familiarity, weather conditions, and his established pattern of underperformance creates optimal betting conditions for systematic under exposure.