Jordan Addison has delivered exceptional over value on his receptions props, hitting overs at a 70% clip (7-3) over his last 10 games with a robust +33.6% ROI. His 4.7 reception average consistently beats the typical 3.9 line by 0.8 receptions per game. This represents a strong lean over opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Jordan Addison's reception prop dominance stems from his elevated role in Minnesota's passing attack and favorable target distribution patterns. The 4.7 reception average against 3.9 lines suggests consistent market undervaluation, creating sustainable betting value. The +0.8 differential indicates Addison regularly exceeds expectations through reliable target volume rather than boom-bust performances. His 70% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency, with only three games falling short of projections during this stretch. The +33.6% ROI on overs reflects genuine market inefficiency rather than temporary variance. However, the recent two-game under streak introduces caution, potentially signaling defensive adjustments or usage changes. The lack of split data limits deeper situational analysis, but the core trend remains compelling. Addison's reception props appear systematically underpriced, likely due to his perceived secondary role behind Justin Jefferson. This market perception creates ongoing value opportunities, particularly when game scripts favor passing volume. The consistency of his target share and route running from the slot position provides a stable foundation for continued over performance, making this trend more sustainable than typical statistical hot streaks.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Addison's 70% over rate and +0.8 average differential represent genuine market inefficiency in his reception props. The consistent target volume and slot role provide sustainable value, though the recent two-game under streak warrants slight caution. Ideal conditions include games with projected high passing volume or when Minnesota trails and needs to throw frequently.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 4.5 | 3.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 5.5 | 1.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 4.5 | 5.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 4.5 | 7.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 3.5 | 8.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 8.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receptions Prop Lines
Compare Jordan Addison props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Addison's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Jordan Addison has gone over his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), averaging 4.7 receptions against typical lines around 3.9. This 7-3 over record has generated a strong +33.6% ROI for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Addison Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Jordan Addison's reception props. His consistent 4.7 average beats the market line by 0.8 receptions, and the 70% over rate suggests systematic undervaluation. However, exercise slight caution given his recent two-game under streak.
What's Jordan Addison's average Receptions last 10 games?
Jordan Addison averages 4.7 receptions over his last 10 games, consistently beating the typical market line of 3.9 by 0.8 receptions per game. This differential represents significant value for over bettors in his reception props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jordan Addison reception overs in high-volume passing games or when Minnesota projects to trail and throw frequently. His slot role provides a stable target floor, making overs particularly valuable when game scripts favor increased passing attempts.