Jordan Addison has delivered exceptional value on receiving yards overs, hitting 60% with a +13.6 yard differential above market lines over his last 10 games. The Vikings receiver has generated a robust +14.6% ROI for over bettors while crushing under backers at -23.6%. This represents a clear LEAN OVER opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Addison's 63.1-yard average against 49.5-yard lines reveals a consistent market undervaluation that sharp bettors should exploit. The 13.6-yard differential suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his expanded role in Minnesota's passing attack, creating sustainable value. His 6-4 over record demonstrates reliability rather than variance-driven results, with the positive ROI confirming this isn't just about hitting lucky games. The current 2-game under streak actually enhances value, as regression suggests a return to his established pattern. Market inefficiency appears rooted in Addison's perceived secondary status behind Justin Jefferson, yet his target share and route diversity have evolved significantly. The Vikings' offensive pace and red zone usage patterns favor continued over performance, particularly when game scripts demand aerial production. While the under streak introduces caution, the underlying metrics—target depth, snap percentage, and situational usage—remain favorable for yardage accumulation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Addison's consistent outperformance of market expectations creates exploitable value, particularly given the 13.6-yard cushion above typical lines. The 60% hit rate with strong ROI metrics suggests sustainable edge rather than short-term variance. Primary risk lies in the current 2-game under streak potentially indicating defensive adjustments, but the underlying target volume supports continued over performance in favorable game scripts.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-13 | OPP | 58.5 | 29.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 68.5 | 0.0 | -68.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 59.5 | 69.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 52.5 | 35.0 | -17.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-16 | OPP | 53.5 | 63.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 45.5 | 133.0 | +87.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 50.5 | 54.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 35.5 | 162.0 | +126.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 31.5 | 61.0 | +29.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 39.5 | 25.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Receiving Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jordan Addison's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Jordan Addison has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% hit rate), generating a +14.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors suffered a -23.6% loss rate during this span.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jordan Addison Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the OVER on Addison's receiving yards props. His 63.1-yard average against 49.5-yard lines creates a 13.6-yard edge, and the 60% hit rate with strong ROI metrics indicates sustainable market inefficiency favoring over bettors.
What's Jordan Addison's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Addison has averaged 63.1 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical market lines around 49.5 yards, creating a significant 13.6-yard differential that consistently favors over bettors seeking value.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Addison receiving yards overs when lines sit below 55 yards and during the current under streak, as his 63.1-yard average suggests market undervaluation. Avoid in obvious run-heavy game scripts or severe weather conditions.