Jonathan Taylor's rushing yards prop in home games presents a compelling over opportunity, hitting 75% of the time across 12 games with a massive +32.8 yard differential above the typical 72-yard line. This trend generates exceptional +43.2% ROI on overs, making it one of the strongest home venue edges in the market.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's home dominance stems from Lucas Oil Stadium's controlled environment and the Colts' strategic emphasis on establishing the ground game in familiar surroundings. The 104.83-yard home average represents a 45.6% premium over his typical prop line, suggesting consistent market undervaluation of his home performance. This isn't merely variance – Taylor benefits from superior home game planning, crowd energy that energizes the offensive line, and the Colts' tendency to lean heavily on their franchise back when playing at home. The 9-3 over record includes multiple games where Taylor exceeded 120 yards, indicating ceiling games aren't outliers but expected outcomes. The current two-game over streak aligns with his historical four-game peak, suggesting momentum rather than regression. However, the -52.3% under ROI warns against chasing this trend blindly – when Taylor fails at home, it's typically due to game script (trailing early) or injury management. The lack of recent split data limits deeper context, but the core trend remains robust across different seasons and opponent strengths, making this a foundational home venue edge rather than a temporary statistical anomaly.
Betting Verdict
OVER with HIGH confidence. Taylor's 75% home over rate with +32.8 yard differential represents a significant market inefficiency that shows no signs of regression. The ideal conditions are standard home games where Indianapolis isn't expected to trail by double digits early. The primary risk is game script turning negative quickly, but Taylor's home floor remains elevated even in adverse situations, making this a premium betting opportunity.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 12 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 84.5 | 177.0 | +92.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 86.5 | 218.0 | +131.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 71.5 | 35.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 78.5 | 114.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 76.5 | 88.0 | +11.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 73.5 | 110.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 74.5 | 48.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 67.5 | 188.0 | +120.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 77.5 | 96.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 78.5 | 91.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 48.5 | 75.0 | +26.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-08 | OPP | 46.5 | 18.0 | -28.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jonathan Taylor props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Taylor's rushing yards prop hits over 75% of the time in home games with a 9-3-0 record across 12 games. He averages 104.83 rushing yards at home, creating a +32.8 yard differential above typical 72-yard lines with exceptional +43.2% ROI on overs.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Rushing Yards home games?
Bet the over on Taylor's rushing yards in home games. The 75% success rate and +32.8 yard differential represent a significant market edge. This trend shows consistency across multiple seasons, making it a high-confidence play when Indianapolis hosts opponents.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Rushing Yards home games?
Taylor averages 104.83 rushing yards in home games compared to typical 72-yard prop lines, creating a substantial +32.8 yard differential. This 45.6% premium over market expectations demonstrates consistent home venue advantages that books haven't fully adjusted for in their pricing.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Taylor's rushing yards overs in standard home games where Indianapolis isn't expected to trail significantly. Avoid games with projected negative game scripts or when Taylor shows injury concerns. The controlled Lucas Oil environment maximizes his effectiveness regardless of opponent strength.