Jonathan Taylor's receiving props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting just 30% of overs across his last 10 games with a devastating -0.4 differential versus the typical 1.8 line. The Colts' ground-heavy approach has consistently limited his pass-catching opportunities, creating a sustainable edge.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Indianapolis's offensive identity shift. Taylor's 1.4 reception average falls consistently short of the 1.8 line books typically hang, creating a systematic mispricing that sharp bettors have exploited for +33.6% ROI on unders. This isn't random variance—it reflects the Colts' commitment to establishing Taylor as a pure ground threat rather than a dual-purpose weapon. The franchise has clearly moved away from the pass-heavy schemes that once saw Taylor eclipse 40 receptions in 2021. Current offensive coordinator Shane Steichen has deployed Taylor in more traditional between-the-tackles roles, limiting his route-running to obvious passing downs. The brutal 6-game under streak followed by just one over suggests books have been slow to adjust their lines to this new reality. Most concerning for over bettors is how this trend has persisted regardless of game script—even in negative game scripts where teams typically abandon the run, Taylor's reception totals have remained suppressed. The Colts appear committed to this ground-first philosophy, making regression unlikely without a significant schematic overhaul or personnel changes that force more passing game involvement.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The -0.4 differential and 70% under rate create legitimate value, especially when books continue setting lines around 1.8 receptions. The Colts' offensive identity strongly favors this trend's continuation, though the recent single over suggests some caution. Target unders when Indianapolis faces stout run defenses that might force more creative usage, as even those situations haven't significantly boosted Taylor's receiving volume.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Jonathan Taylor has gone under his receptions prop in 7 of his last 10 games (30% over rate), averaging just 1.4 receptions against lines typically set around 1.8, creating a significant -0.4 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Receptions last 10 games?
Lean under on Taylor's receptions props. The 70% under rate and -0.4 differential suggest books are overvaluing his pass-catching role in Indianapolis's ground-heavy offense, creating consistent value on the under.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Receptions last 10 games?
Taylor averages 1.4 receptions over his last 10 games, falling 0.4 receptions short of the typical 1.8 line. This consistent shortfall has generated strong under value for disciplined bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor reception unders when Indianapolis faces strong run defenses or in potential shootout spots where his limited route-running role becomes most apparent compared to other pass-catching backs.