Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props at home present a compelling under opportunity with just 30.0% overs hitting across 10 games. His 11.4-yard average falls 2.7 yards short of typical lines, generating a robust +33.6% ROI on unders while currently riding a three-game under streak.
Expert Analysis
Taylor's home receiving struggles stem from Indianapolis's offensive identity shift and game script tendencies at Lucas Oil Stadium. The Colts have increasingly relied on Taylor as a pure ground-and-pound runner at home, where they've controlled pace and minimized passing-down usage for their bell-cow back. His 11.4-yard home average reflects a role that prioritizes early-down carries over third-down receiving work, particularly when Indianapolis builds leads or stays competitive in front of their crowd. The 2.7-yard gap between his production and typical betting lines suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to this home/road split in his usage patterns. With three consecutive unders and a longest under streak of four games, the trend shows remarkable consistency rather than random variance. The -42.7% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has likely identified this edge, while the sample size of 10 games provides sufficient data to trust the pattern. Taylor's receiving production appears genuinely suppressed at home due to strategic deployment rather than temporary regression, making this a sustainable betting angle rather than a short-term anomaly.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Taylor's home receiving role has fundamentally shifted toward pure rushing, creating a legitimate market inefficiency. The 30.0% over rate and +33.6% under ROI reflect genuine strategic changes rather than variance. Target unders when Indianapolis is favored at home, as positive game scripts further limit Taylor's passing-down involvement. Main risk is potential offensive coordinator changes or injury situations forcing increased receiving usage.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 8.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 25.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 21.5 | 0.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 17.5 | 45.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Receiving Yards prop record home games?
Taylor has gone under his receiving yards prop in 7 of 10 home games (70.0% under rate), averaging just 11.4 yards compared to typical lines around 14.1 yards, creating a -2.7 yard differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards home games?
Bet under on Taylor's receiving yards at home. The 70.0% under rate and +33.6% ROI on unders reflect his diminished passing-game role at Lucas Oil Stadium, making unders the clear value play.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Receiving Yards home games?
Taylor averages 11.4 receiving yards in home games, falling 2.7 yards short of typical betting lines around 14.1 yards. This consistent gap represents a genuine market inefficiency worth exploiting.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor receiving yards unders when Indianapolis is favored at home. Positive game scripts and familiar surroundings lead to increased rushing emphasis, further limiting his already reduced receiving role in home contests.