Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props in away games present a clear under opportunity, hitting just 40.0% overs across 10 games with a -2.2 average differential below the line. The consistent underperformance and positive 14.6% ROI on unders makes this a medium-confidence lean under play.
Expert Analysis
The data reveals a systematic undervaluation of Taylor's receiving limitations in road environments. Averaging just 10.8 receiving yards against a 13.0 line, Taylor consistently fails to meet inflated expectations that assume his home receiving usage translates to away games. The 40% over rate isn't just poor luck—it reflects Indianapolis's offensive approach shifting away from Taylor in the passing game when playing in hostile environments. Road games typically feature more conservative game scripts where the Colts lean heavily on Taylor's rushing ability while reducing his route-running responsibilities. The -23.6% ROI on overs demonstrates how consistently the market overprices his receiving upside away from Lucas Oil Stadium. With four consecutive unders in his longest streak, the pattern suggests coaching staff philosophy rather than random variance. The absence of significant split data actually strengthens the case, as it indicates no meaningful situational factors boost his receiving production on the road. Taylor's receiving yards props appear systematically inflated by oddsmakers who fail to account for Indianapolis's more run-heavy approach in away contests, creating sustainable value on the under.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 60% under rate combined with consistent -2.2 differential below the line creates legitimate value, especially when the number sits at 13.0 or higher. Target this play when Indianapolis faces strong defensive fronts that force more traditional rushing attacks. Main risk is garbage-time receiving work if the Colts fall behind early, but the trend's consistency suggests this scenario hasn't materialized frequently enough to derail the under thesis.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 11.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 32.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 20.5 | 0.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-12 | OPP | 21.5 | 6.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-05 | OPP | 14.5 | 22.0 | +7.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Receiving Yards prop record away games?
Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props in away games show a 4-6-0 record (40.0% overs) across 10 games from November 2023 through December 2024, averaging 10.8 yards against a typical 13.0 line for a -2.2 differential.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards away games?
Bet under on Taylor's receiving yards in away games. The 60% under rate, -2.2 average differential, and positive 14.6% ROI on unders create legitimate value, especially when the line sits at 13.0 or higher.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Receiving Yards away games?
Taylor averages 10.8 receiving yards in away games, consistently falling 2.2 yards short of the typical 13.0 line. This represents a meaningful gap that suggests systematic overvaluation by oddsmakers in road contests.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor receiving yards unders in away games when the line is 13.0+ and Indianapolis faces strong defensive fronts. Avoid when the Colts are significant road underdogs where garbage-time receiving work becomes more likely.