Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props present a compelling under opportunity with just 35.0% overs across 20 games. His 11.1 yard average consistently falls 2.5 yards below typical lines, generating +24.1% ROI on unders while overs bleed -33.2%.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan Taylor's receiving production reveals a fundamental disconnect between market perception and reality. His 7-13-0 over/under record stems from Indianapolis's offensive philosophy that limits Taylor's pass-catching role despite his capabilities. The Colts consistently deploy Taylor as a traditional between-the-tackles runner, averaging just 2.1 targets per game over this sample. His 11.1 yard average reflects sporadic usage in obvious passing situations rather than designed receiving plays. The -2.5 differential between his average and typical lines suggests oddsmakers overvalue his receiving potential based on physical tools rather than actual deployment. Taylor's longest under streak of seven games demonstrates how consistently the Colts minimize his aerial involvement, even in negative game scripts where trailing teams typically increase running back targets. The persistence of this trend across different offensive coordinators and game situations indicates a philosophical commitment to keeping Taylor primarily as a rusher. While his receiving skills remain evident in limited opportunities, the volume simply isn't there to support inflated lines. The 24.1% ROI on unders across 20 games represents substantial value, particularly given the consistency of Indianapolis's approach regardless of game flow or opponent.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Taylor's receiving usage remains artificially constrained by Indianapolis's offensive philosophy, creating consistent value on unders despite his obvious pass-catching ability. Target unders when lines exceed 12.5 yards, especially against teams that struggle defending the run where the Colts will emphasize Taylor's ground game. Main risk involves potential coaching changes or garbage-time opportunities inflating numbers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-29 | OPP | 7.5 | 11.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 8.5 | 4.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 10.5 | 7.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 9.5 | 0.0 | -9.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 3.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 21.5 | 8.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 15.5 | 11.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 10.5 | 12.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 11.5 | 20.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 11.5 | 25.0 | +13.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 11.5 | 32.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-06 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 13.5 | 8.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Taylor's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Jonathan Taylor has gone over his receiving yards prop in just 7 of 20 games (35.0% rate) while going under 13 times. His 11.1 yard average consistently falls short of typical market lines around 13.5-14 yards.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Jonathan Taylor's receiving yards props. His 35.0% over rate and +24.1% ROI on unders reflect consistent market overvaluation of his pass-catching role within Indianapolis's run-heavy offensive philosophy.
What's Jonathan Taylor's average Receiving Yards all games?
Jonathan Taylor averages 11.1 receiving yards per game, running 2.5 yards below typical market lines of 13.5-14 yards. This differential creates consistent value on under bets across various game situations and matchups.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Taylor receiving yards unders when lines exceed 12.5 yards, particularly against run-funnel defenses where Indianapolis emphasizes ground game. Avoid unders in potential blowout losses where garbage-time targets could inflate his numbers.