Jonathan Mingo's reception props present a clear underdog opportunity with just 40% overs hitting across 20 games. His 2.6 average sits 0.1 receptions below typical lines, while under bettors have generated a healthy 14.6% ROI. The current four-game under streak reinforces this edge.
Expert Analysis
Mingo's reception struggles stem from his role as a complementary receiver in offenses that haven't prioritized his involvement. The 2.6 reception average reveals a player consistently failing to meet modest expectations, suggesting oddsmakers may still be overvaluing his target share. The -23.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money has been fading this number, while recreational bettors likely chase the name recognition. His longest over streak reaching just two games demonstrates the consistency of his limited involvement, while the current four-game under run shows no signs of positive regression. The 40% over rate across 20 games provides substantial sample size confidence, and the absence of meaningful splits suggests this trend persists regardless of opponent or game script. Most concerning for over bettors is that even when Mingo does hit his number, it rarely comes with much cushion, making overs a low-margin proposition. The fact that his average sits below the typical line indicates books are still catching up to his actual usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mingo's consistent underperformance against modest reception totals creates sustainable value on the under side. The 14.6% under ROI demonstrates this isn't just variance but a genuine market inefficiency. Target under bets when lines sit at 3+ receptions, as his 2.6 average provides solid cushion. Main risk is a potential role expansion, but his track record suggests limited upside.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 2.5 | 2.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 4.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 3.5 | 2.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 2.5 | 6.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Mingo's Receptions prop record all games?
Mingo's reception props show 8 overs and 12 unders across 20 games, hitting the over just 40% of the time. Under bettors have generated a positive 14.6% ROI while over bettors lose 23.6%.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Mingo Receptions all games?
Bet under on Mingo's receptions. His 2.6 average consistently falls short of typical lines, and the current four-game under streak reinforces this edge with medium confidence backing the trend.
What's Jonathan Mingo's average Receptions all games?
Mingo averages 2.6 receptions per game, sitting 0.1 below the typical 2.7 line. This small but consistent gap creates sustainable value for under bettors across his 20-game sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mingo reception unders when lines reach 3+ receptions, giving maximum cushion against his 2.6 average. His consistent underperformance makes this a year-round opportunity regardless of matchup.