Jonathan Mingo has been a consistent under play with a brutal 2-8-0 over/under record in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of overs. Averaging 16.2 receiving yards against a 25.1 line creates an 8.9-yard deficit that translates to +52.7% ROI on unders. This is a strong fade candidate.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan Mingo's receiving yards props present one of the clearest under trends in the market, with his 16.2-yard average falling dramatically short of the typical 25.1 line set by oddsmakers. This 35.5% shortfall isn't marginal variance—it's systematic underperformance that reflects Mingo's limited role in Dallas's offensive hierarchy. The Cowboys' receiving corps features established targets ahead of Mingo, relegating him to a complementary role that rarely generates the volume needed to clear inflated prop lines. His longest over streak of just one game compared to a three-game under streak demonstrates the consistency of this fade opportunity. The -61.8% ROI on overs shows how punishing backing Mingo has been, while the +52.7% under ROI represents genuine edge for disciplined bettors. Market makers appear slow to adjust to Mingo's reduced ceiling, particularly as Dallas's offensive game plans continue prioritizing other receivers. The 10-game sample provides sufficient data to establish pattern recognition, and Mingo's current two-game under streak suggests the trend remains intact. Without significant injury or scheme changes affecting Dallas's receiving hierarchy, this systematic underperformance should persist.
Betting Verdict
UNDER with HIGH confidence. Mingo's 8.9-yard average deficit against the line represents a market inefficiency that's produced consistent profits. The ideal conditions are standard game scripts where Dallas doesn't fall behind early and abandon their typical offensive distribution. The main risk is a potential breakout performance that could reset market expectations, but his 20.0% over rate suggests such games are outliers rather than trend-breakers.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 25.5 | 1.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 27.5 | 37.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 32.5 | 24.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 1.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 38.5 | 32.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Mingo's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Mingo has gone 2-8-0 on receiving yards overs in his last 10 games, hitting just 20.0% of over bets. He's averaging 16.2 yards against lines typically set around 25.1 yards, creating an 8.9-yard average shortfall that's been remarkably consistent.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Bet the under with high confidence. Mingo's systematic underperformance has generated +52.7% ROI on unders while overs have lost -61.8%. His limited role in Dallas's offense makes clearing inflated prop lines extremely difficult, creating a clear market edge.
What's Jonathan Mingo's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Mingo averages 16.2 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 25.1 yards. This 8.9-yard deficit represents a 35.5% shortfall that demonstrates how consistently he fails to reach market expectations set by oddsmakers.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Mingo under props in standard game scripts where Dallas maintains their typical offensive distribution. Avoid when the Cowboys face large deficits that could force increased passing volume to secondary receivers, though his 20.0% over rate suggests even favorable conditions rarely produce overs.