Jonathan Mingo's receiving yards props present a clear under opportunity with just a 30.0% over rate across 20 games. His 25.85-yard average falls 1.8 yards short of typical 27.6 lines, generating a robust +33.6% ROI on unders. The data strongly favors betting under on Mingo's receiving yards.
Expert Analysis
Jonathan Mingo's receiving yards props tell the story of a player consistently overvalued by oddsmakers. His 6-14-0 over/under record reflects a fundamental disconnect between market expectations and on-field production. The 25.85-yard average against 27.6 lines reveals books haven't adequately adjusted to Mingo's limited role in Carolina's offense before his trade to Dallas. The -42.7% ROI on overs demonstrates how punishing this prop has been for over bettors, while the +33.6% under ROI shows consistent profitability. Mingo's current two-game under streak extends a pattern where he's hit four consecutive unders at his peak, suggesting when he goes cold, he stays cold. His longest over streak reached just two games, indicating limited ceiling even in favorable matchups. The Cowboys acquisition adds uncertainty, but Mingo's track record suggests he's a complementary piece rather than a featured target. With CeeDee Lamb commanding primary attention and a crowded receiving corps, Mingo's path to consistent yardage remains limited. The sample size of 20 games provides solid confidence in this trend's sustainability.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Mingo's 30% over rate and consistent underperformance create value on under bets, particularly with his new role in Dallas likely limiting targets. The +33.6% under ROI demonstrates this edge's profitability. Primary risk lies in the Cowboys potentially featuring Mingo more prominently than Carolina did, but his career usage patterns suggest he remains a complementary receiver best suited for under plays.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 13.5 | 0.0 | -13.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 25.5 | 1.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 27.5 | 37.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 32.5 | 24.0 | -8.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 18.5 | 18.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 16.5 | 1.0 | -15.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 17.5 | 40.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 27.5 | 0.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 33.5 | 9.0 | -24.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 38.5 | 32.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 36.5 | 22.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-03 | OPP | 27.5 | 69.0 | +41.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 27.5 | 60.0 | +32.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 24.5 | 6.0 | -18.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-09 | OPP | 31.5 | 20.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jonathan Mingo's Receiving Yards prop record all games?
Jonathan Mingo's receiving yards prop record stands at 6-14-0 over/under across 20 games, translating to just a 30.0% over rate. This poor over performance has generated a -42.7% ROI for over bettors while under bets have produced a profitable +33.6% return.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards all games?
Bet under on Jonathan Mingo's receiving yards props. His 30% over rate and +33.6% under ROI demonstrate consistent value on the under. The 1.8-yard gap between his average and typical lines creates a sustainable edge that his Dallas trade is unlikely to eliminate.
What's Jonathan Mingo's average Receiving Yards all games?
Jonathan Mingo averages 25.85 receiving yards per game across his 20-game sample. This falls 1.8 yards below the typical 27.6-yard line, creating a meaningful gap that explains his poor 30% over rate and the profitability of under bets.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Jonathan Mingo under bets when lines sit at 27+ yards, matching historical averages. His tendency toward extended cold streaks makes unders particularly valuable during rough patches. Avoid after his rare two-game over streaks when variance might temporarily favor overs.