Joe Mixon's rushing yards props present a clear over opportunity with an 18-13 record (58.1% hit rate) and +4.1 yard average differential above the closing line. The +10.8% ROI on overs versus -19.9% on unders creates a sustainable edge. Lean Over with medium confidence.
Expert Analysis
Joe Mixon's rushing yards props reveal a consistent market inefficiency where oddsmakers consistently undervalue his production capacity. Averaging 68.06 yards against a 63.98 closing line demonstrates the market's failure to properly price his workload and efficiency combination. The 58.1% over rate across 31 games suggests this isn't random variance but a systematic undervaluation. Mixon's transition to Houston has maintained his productivity patterns, benefiting from improved offensive line play and more consistent game scripts compared to his Cincinnati tenure. The Texans' commitment to establishing the run game, particularly in neutral and positive game scripts, creates favorable volume scenarios that the market hasn't fully adjusted to pricing. However, the relatively modest 4.1-yard differential suggests this edge isn't massive, requiring careful line shopping and timing. The current two-game over streak aligns with his four-game maximum streak, indicating sustainable momentum rather than unsustainable hot streaks. Regression risk exists given the 58.1% rate, but the underlying factors supporting Mixon's production remain intact. Weather conditions, opponent run defense rankings, and game total context become crucial variables for maximizing this edge.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 58.1% over rate and +4.1 yard differential create a legitimate edge, though not overwhelming. Target lines at or below the 63.98 average for optimal value. Ideal conditions include neutral game scripts, indoor games, and matchups against middle-tier run defenses. Main risk is regression toward 50% given the modest differential, making selective betting crucial rather than blindly backing every over.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 57.5 | 88.0 | +30.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 71.5 | 106.0 | +34.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 62.5 | 26.0 | -36.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 63.5 | 57.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 78.5 | 23.0 | -55.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 82.5 | 101.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 86.5 | 22.0 | -64.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-18 | OPP | 86.5 | 109.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 75.5 | 46.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 83.5 | 106.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 77.5 | 102.0 | +24.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 64.5 | 115.0 | +50.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 50.5 | 102.0 | +51.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 71.5 | 25.0 | -46.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-08 | OPP | 55.5 | 159.0 | +103.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Mixon's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Joe Mixon has gone over his rushing yards prop in 18 of 31 games (58.1%) while averaging 68.06 yards against a 63.98 average line, creating a +4.1 yard differential that favors over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Mixon Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Joe Mixon's rushing yards props. The 58.1% over rate and +10.8% ROI on overs versus -19.9% on unders creates a measurable edge, though selective betting at favorable lines maximizes value.
What's Joe Mixon's average Rushing Yards all games?
Joe Mixon averages 68.06 rushing yards per game compared to his average closing line of 63.98 yards. This +4.1 yard differential demonstrates consistent market undervaluation of his production capacity across 31 games.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Joe Mixon rushing yards overs in neutral game scripts with lines at or below his 63.98 average. Indoor games and matchups against middle-tier run defenses provide optimal conditions for his volume-based production model.