Joe Burrow has hit the over on rushing yards in exactly half his last 10 games (5-5-0), but his 11.0 yard average runs 1.8 yards above typical lines. Despite the modest edge, negative ROI on both sides signals efficient market pricing. This is a marginal lean over situation at best.
Expert Analysis
Burrow's rushing numbers reflect the modern pocket passer reality—minimal designed runs but crucial scrambles when protection breaks down. His 11.0 yard average beating the 9.2 line suggests books may be undervaluing his mobility in critical situations. The perfectly balanced 5-5 record masks underlying volatility, with Burrow capable of 20-yard games when pressured or near-zero performances in clean pockets. The recent under streak (currently at 1) follows his longest under run of 3 games, indicating natural regression patterns rather than systematic changes. Cincinnati's offensive line health directly correlates with Burrow's rushing output—more pressure equals more scrambles. However, the negative ROI on both sides reveals sharp market adjustment, making this prop less exploitable than raw averages suggest. Game script matters enormously here; trailing by multiple scores forces Burrow into hurry-up offense where rushing opportunities multiply, while comfortable leads keep him safely in the pocket. The 1.8 yard edge over lines appears meaningful but lacks the sample size and ROI support for high-conviction betting.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with LOW confidence. The 1.8 yard average edge over typical lines provides mathematical support, but negative ROI on both sides indicates efficient pricing. Target games where Cincinnati faces strong pass rush or expects to trail early, as pressure situations generate Burrow's rushing opportunities. The main risk is his pocket-first mentality in clean games, which can produce zero-yard rushing performances that kill over bets.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 10.5 | -1.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 6.5 | 25.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 8.5 | 19.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 7.5 | 0.0 | -7.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 9.5 | -2.0 | -11.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 9.5 | 9.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 9.5 | 28.0 | +18.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 9.5 | 6.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 9.5 | 11.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 11.5 | 15.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Burrow's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Burrow has gone over his rushing yards prop in exactly 5 of his last 10 games, creating a perfectly balanced 5-5-0 record. This 50% hit rate shows no clear directional edge in recent form.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Burrow Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over based on his 11.0 yard average beating typical 9.2 lines by 1.8 yards. However, keep stakes modest due to negative ROI and efficient market pricing on this prop.
What's Joe Burrow's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Burrow averages 11.0 rushing yards over his last 10 games, which runs 1.8 yards above the typical 9.2 line. This differential suggests modest value on over bets in the right spots.
How reliable is this trend?
Target games where Cincinnati faces strong pass rush or expects to trail early. Pressure situations and negative game scripts force Burrow out of the pocket, creating the scrambling opportunities that drive his rushing production.