Joe Burrow's passing touchdown props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting at a dominant 72.0% rate (18-7-0) while averaging 2.24 touchdowns against a 1.58 line. The +0.7 differential and +37.5% ROI over 25 games represents one of the most profitable quarterback trends in recent memory. This is a strong lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Burrow's touchdown production consistently exceeds market expectations due to several converging factors. The Bengals' high-powered passing offense, anchored by elite receivers Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, creates consistent red zone opportunities that Burrow capitalizes on efficiently. His 2.24 average against a 1.58 line suggests books are systematically undervaluing his touchdown upside, likely anchoring to league averages rather than Cincinnati's specific offensive profile. The 8-game over streak demonstrates this isn't random variance but a sustainable edge rooted in scheme and talent. Burrow's accuracy and decision-making in scoring situations have been exceptional, with the Bengals' pace-up approach creating additional possessions. The -46.5% under ROI shows how costly it's been to fade this trend. While regression is always possible, the underlying offensive infrastructure remains intact. The biggest risk comes from potential game script issues in blowouts or defensive games, but Cincinnati's high-scoring nature and Burrow's consistent volume make those scenarios less frequent than the market prices in.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 72.0% hit rate and +0.7 differential represent clear market inefficiency, but the sample size requires some caution. Target overs when the line sits at 1.5 or below, as Burrow's 2.24 average provides excellent cushion. The main risk is a potential market correction as books adjust to this trend, but until then, the data strongly favors continued over production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-28 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-09 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-07 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-23 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Joe Burrow's Passing TDs prop record all games?
Burrow's passing touchdown props show an 18-7-0 over/under record (72.0% overs) across 25 games from September 2023 to January 2025. This represents one of the most profitable quarterback prop trends, with overs hitting at nearly three-quarters rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Joe Burrow Passing TDs all games?
Bet over on Burrow's passing touchdowns. The 72.0% over rate, +37.5% ROI, and 0.7 average differential above the line create a clear mathematical edge. Target lines at 1.5 or below for maximum value in this consistently profitable trend.
What's Joe Burrow's average Passing TDs all games?
Burrow averages 2.24 passing touchdowns per game against an average line of 1.58, creating a +0.7 differential. This substantial gap between production and market expectation explains the 72.0% over rate and demonstrates consistent undervaluation by sportsbooks.
How reliable is this trend?
Bet Burrow touchdown overs when the line is 1.5 or below, maximizing the value from his 2.24 average. Avoid in potential blowout scenarios where game script might limit passing volume, but his consistent production makes most game environments profitable.