Jeremy Ruckert has quietly delivered value for over bettors in his last 10 games, posting a 60% over rate while averaging 8.9 receiving yards against lines averaging 6.6. The +2.3 differential and positive ROI suggest consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers.
Expert Analysis
Ruckert's receiving yards trend reflects a young tight end finding his role in Aaron Rodgers' system. The 8.9 yards per game average significantly exceeds his typical line of 6.6, creating a sustainable edge that oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to. This isn't about explosive performances—Ruckert's value comes from consistent short-area targets and check-downs that accumulate steadily. The Jets' offensive struggles actually work in his favor, as Rodgers increasingly relies on safe underneath options when primary receivers are covered. The 60% over rate across 10 games suggests this isn't random variance but a genuine market inefficiency. However, the limited sample size and Ruckert's role as a complementary piece make this trend vulnerable to game script changes. His production heavily depends on the Jets playing from behind or in competitive games where Rodgers needs reliable targets. The +14.6% ROI on overs indicates sharp money hasn't fully caught up to this value, but that window may be closing as his usage patterns become more established.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Ruckert's consistent outperformance of his receiving yards lines stems from his growing chemistry with Rodgers and reliable target share in short-yardage situations. The +2.3 yard differential over 10 games represents genuine value that oddsmakers are slow to adjust. Best spots are competitive games where the Jets need consistent offensive production.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 12.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 6.5 | 0.0 | -6.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 6.5 | 3.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 7.5 | 6.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 6.5 | 17.0 | +10.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-31 | OPP | 7.5 | 4.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 5.5 | 14.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-14 | OPP | 6.5 | 7.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-29 | OPP | 5.5 | 10.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2023-12-17 | OPP | 10.5 | 16.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jeremy Ruckert's Receiving Yards prop record last 10 games?
Ruckert has gone over his receiving yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60% rate), with 4 unders. His longest over streak was 4 games, while his longest under streak was 3 games, showing relatively balanced variance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jeremy Ruckert Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Ruckert's receiving yards props. He's averaging 8.9 yards against lines of 6.6, creating a +2.3 differential with positive ROI. The consistency suggests oddsmakers are undervaluing his growing role in the Jets offense.
What's Jeremy Ruckert's average Receiving Yards last 10 games?
Ruckert is averaging 8.9 receiving yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 6.6 yards. This +2.3 differential represents significant value, as he's consistently exceeding market expectations by over 30%.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Ruckert overs in competitive games where the Jets need consistent offensive production. Avoid when the Jets are heavy favorites or in blowout scenarios where his limited role could disappear entirely in favor of running the clock.