Jaylen Warren has delivered consistent rushing yard value over his last 10 games, hitting the over at a 60% clip (6-4-0) while averaging 36.6 yards against a 32.9-yard line. The +3.7 differential and +14.6% ROI on overs suggests sustainable production above market expectations, making Warren a lean over candidate.
Expert Analysis
Warren's 60% over rate reflects his evolving role in Pittsburgh's backfield, where his versatility as both a rusher and receiver keeps him on the field in various game scripts. The +3.7 yard differential above market lines indicates oddsmakers may be undervaluing his consistent floor, particularly given his ability to contribute even when Najee Harris dominates early-down work. Warren's production stems from his efficiency in limited touches rather than volume, making him less game-script dependent than traditional backup running backs. The 36.6-yard average suggests he's found a sustainable role that translates to betting value. However, the recent two-game under streak raises questions about whether defenses are adjusting or if this represents normal variance. The lack of split data limits our ability to identify optimal betting spots, but Warren's role appears stable enough to maintain this slight edge over market pricing. His rushing production often correlates with Pittsburgh's offensive rhythm, making game flow analysis crucial for individual prop evaluation.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Warren's 60% over rate and +3.7 yard differential above market lines suggests consistent undervaluation by oddsmakers. His versatile role provides a reliable floor even in negative game scripts, though the recent two-game under streak warrants caution. Target overs when Pittsburgh projects for balanced offensive game plans or when Warren's receiving usage complements his rushing opportunities.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 33.5 | 6.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 41.5 | 21.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 34.5 | 71.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 27.5 | 48.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 12.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 47.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 40.5 | 9.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 36.5 | 45.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 41.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 66.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaylen Warren's Rushing Yards prop record last 10 games?
Warren has gone over his rushing yards prop in 6 of his last 10 games (60%) while staying under 4 times. This 6-4-0 record has generated a +14.6% ROI for over bettors, indicating consistent value above market expectations.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Lean over on Warren's rushing yards props. His 60% over rate and +3.7 average differential above the line suggests oddsmakers undervalue his production. However, use medium confidence given the recent two-game under streak and limited sample size.
What's Jaylen Warren's average Rushing Yards last 10 games?
Warren averages 36.6 rushing yards over his last 10 games compared to an average line of 32.9 yards. This +3.7 differential indicates he's consistently exceeding market expectations, providing a measurable edge for over bettors.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Warren rushing yard overs when Pittsburgh projects for balanced offensive game plans or competitive game scripts. His versatile role provides more stability than typical backup runners, making him less dependent on blowout scenarios for production.