Jaylen Warren's rushing yards props show a modest edge toward overs with an 18-15 record (54.5%) and +6.7 yard differential above the typical line. The +4.1% ROI on overs suggests genuine value, though the edge is narrow enough to require selective betting.
Expert Analysis
Warren's rushing yards props present an intriguing case study in role evolution and market inefficiency. The 40.39 yard average against a 33.71 line reveals oddsmakers consistently undervaluing his rushing volume, likely due to his secondary role behind Najee Harris. This 6.7-yard differential isn't massive, but it's persistent enough across 33 games to generate positive ROI on overs. The key driver appears to be Warren's versatility—he's not just a change-of-pace back but a legitimate rushing threat who often sees increased carries in specific game scripts. Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator has shown willingness to feature Warren in packages designed to exploit his quickness and vision, particularly in games where the Steelers establish early leads or need to control clock. The -13.2% ROI on unders suggests the market hasn't fully adjusted to Warren's expanded role, creating a systematic undervaluation. However, the current two-game under streak and relatively modest sample size warrant caution. Warren's rushing production remains somewhat dependent on game flow and Harris's health status, making this a trend that requires careful game-by-game evaluation rather than blind backing.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The consistent 6.7-yard differential and positive ROI indicate genuine market inefficiency in Warren's rushing props. Target overs when Pittsburgh projects as favorites or in games with moderate totals where game script favors balanced offensive attack. The main risk is Warren's complementary role limiting ceiling, making this a selective play rather than an automatic bet.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | OPP | 33.5 | 6.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-04 | OPP | 41.5 | 21.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-25 | OPP | 34.5 | 71.0 | +36.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-21 | OPP | 27.5 | 48.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 28.5 | 12.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-08 | OPP | 34.5 | 47.0 | +12.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-01 | OPP | 40.5 | 9.0 | -31.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-21 | OPP | 36.5 | 45.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 23.5 | 41.0 | +17.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 28.5 | 66.0 | +37.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-28 | OPP | 30.5 | 46.0 | +15.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 21.5 | 44.0 | +22.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 21.5 | 7.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 26.5 | 5.0 | -21.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 18.5 | 42.0 | +23.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jaylen Warren's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Warren's rushing yards props are 18-15 over the total across 33 games (54.5% over rate). He averages 40.39 rushing yards against a typical line of 33.71, creating a +6.7 yard differential that favors over bets.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jaylen Warren Rushing Yards all games?
Lean over on Warren's rushing yards props, but be selective. The +6.7 yard differential and +4.1% ROI suggest market inefficiency, but target favorable game scripts where Pittsburgh controls tempo and Warren sees expanded touches.
What's Jaylen Warren's average Rushing Yards all games?
Warren averages 40.39 rushing yards per game across the 33-game sample. This sits 6.7 yards above his typical prop line of 33.71, indicating oddsmakers consistently undervalue his rushing production in the market.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Warren rushing overs when Pittsburgh is favored by 3-7 points in moderate-total games (42-48 points). These conditions typically produce balanced offensive game plans where Warren's complementary role translates to meaningful rushing attempts and yardage.