Javonte Williams has been a consistent under performer in home rushing yards props, hitting just 40.0% of overs across 15 games with a -4.0 yard differential below the average line. The under bet has generated a solid 14.6% ROI while overs have been disastrous at -23.6%. This points to a clear lean under on Williams home rushing props.
Expert Analysis
The numbers paint a stark picture of Javonte Williams struggling to meet expectations at home in Denver. Averaging 43.33 rushing yards against a 47.3 line represents a meaningful 4.0-yard shortfall that has persisted across 15 games spanning multiple seasons. This isn't random variance – it's a systemic issue tied to Denver's offensive limitations and Williams' role within their scheme. The Broncos have consistently struggled with offensive line play and game script management at home, often falling behind early and abandoning the run game. Williams has also dealt with snap count restrictions and committee backfield situations that cap his ceiling. The -23.6% ROI on overs tells the story of a market that hasn't properly adjusted to these realities. With only 6 overs in 15 attempts, we're looking at a player whose home environment consistently produces underwhelming rushing totals. The current two-game under streak aligns with the broader pattern, and regression toward the mean would actually favor more unders given how far below his line Williams typically performs. This trend shows remarkable consistency across different game situations and opponent strengths.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 40% over rate and -4.0 yard differential create a meaningful edge, especially with the under's 14.6% ROI track record. Target this bet when Williams faces stout run defenses or in games where Denver projects to trail early. The main risk is a potential breakout performance that could skew the average, but the consistency of this trend across 15 games suggests sustainable value on the under.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 31.5 | 15.0 | -16.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-02 | OPP | 34.5 | 1.0 | -33.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 14.5 | 59.0 | +44.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 64.5 | 44.0 | -20.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 49.5 | 23.0 | -26.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-06 | OPP | 52.5 | 61.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 42.5 | 17.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-31 | OPP | 55.5 | 41.0 | -14.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-24 | OPP | 53.5 | 24.0 | -29.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-11-26 | OPP | 55.5 | 65.0 | +9.5 | OVER |
| 2023-11-19 | OPP | 64.5 | 37.0 | -27.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-10-29 | OPP | 49.5 | 85.0 | +35.5 | OVER |
| 2023-10-22 | OPP | 48.5 | 82.0 | +33.5 | OVER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 47.5 | 44.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-10 | OPP | 45.5 | 52.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Javonte Williams's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Javonte Williams has gone under his rushing yards prop in 9 of 15 home games (60% under rate), hitting overs just 40% of the time with 6 successful over bets across the sample period.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Javonte Williams Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Javonte Williams home rushing yards props. The 60% under hit rate, -4.0 yard differential, and positive 14.6% ROI on unders create a clear statistical edge over the inflated market lines.
What's Javonte Williams's average Rushing Yards home games?
Williams averages 43.33 rushing yards in home games compared to the typical 47.3 line, creating a consistent 4.0-yard shortfall that has persisted across 15 games spanning multiple seasons and situations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams under bets in home games against strong run defenses or when Denver projects to trail early. Avoid after bye weeks or in potential blowout wins where garbage time could inflate his numbers.