Fade UNDER
7-10 O/U Record
41.2% Over Rate
-3.6u Units Won
-21.4% ROI
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Javonte Williams has been a consistent under performer in away games, hitting just 41.2% of rushing yards overs across 17 games with a brutal -6.5 yard differential from his betting lines. The under generates positive 12.3% ROI while overs lose at -21.4%. This represents a clear lean under opportunity.

Expert Analysis

Williams' away struggles stem from Denver's offensive limitations on the road, where the Broncos have consistently failed to establish rhythm in hostile environments. The 6.5-yard deficit between his actual production (35.65) and typical betting lines (42.15) suggests oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his road limitations. This isn't just variance—it's a systematic issue tied to Denver's offensive line struggles and game script problems away from home. The Broncos often fall behind on the road, forcing them into pass-heavy situations that limit Williams' opportunities. His 41.2% over rate across 17 games provides substantial sample size confidence, while the positive ROI on unders (+12.3%) indicates real betting value exists. The trend shows persistence rather than regression signs, as Williams has hit four consecutive unders as recently as this sample period. Road environments consistently disrupt Denver's ground game timing, and Williams lacks the explosive breakaway ability to overcome poor blocking and negative game scripts that plague the Broncos away from Mile High Stadium.

Betting Verdict

LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams' 6.5-yard deficit from betting lines in away games creates consistent value on the under, supported by positive 12.3% ROI over 17 games. Target this when Denver faces strong defensive fronts or in potential shootout scenarios where game script could turn pass-heavy early. Main risk is a blowout win where garbage time rushing inflates his numbers.

7 OVERS (41.2%)
10 UNDERS
0% 50% breakeven 100%

Performance vs Line

Game Log (Last 15 Games)

Date Opp Line Actual +/- Result
2025-01-12 OPP 9.5 29.0 +19.5 OVER
2024-12-28 OPP 19.5 0.0 -19.5 UNDER
2024-12-19 OPP 37.5 24.0 -13.5 UNDER
2024-11-24 OPP 37.5 -2.0 -39.5 UNDER
2024-11-10 OPP 35.5 1.0 -34.5 UNDER
2024-11-03 OPP 38.5 42.0 +3.5 OVER
2024-10-17 OPP 47.5 88.0 +40.5 OVER
2024-09-29 OPP 29.5 77.0 +47.5 OVER
2024-09-22 OPP 42.5 12.0 -30.5 UNDER
2024-09-08 OPP 53.5 23.0 -30.5 UNDER
2023-12-16 OPP 54.5 27.0 -27.5 UNDER
2023-12-10 OPP 62.5 66.0 +3.5 OVER
2023-12-03 OPP 58.5 46.0 -12.5 UNDER
2023-11-13 OPP 54.5 79.0 +24.5 OVER
2023-10-12 OPP 34.5 52.0 +17.5 OVER

Key Splits

Home vs Away

Home 50.0% Over
Away 41.2% Over

Favorite vs Underdog

Favorite 50.0% Over
Underdog 50.0% Over

Recent Trend

Last 5 20.0% Over
Last 10 40.0% Over

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is Javonte Williams's Rushing Yards prop record away games?

Williams has gone 7-10-0 on rushing yards overs in away games, hitting just 41.2% across 17 games. He averages 35.65 yards against typical lines of 42.15, creating a consistent 6.5-yard shortfall that generates negative value for over bettors.

Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Javonte Williams Rushing Yards away games?

Bet under on Williams' rushing yards in away games. The data strongly supports this with 58.8% under success rate, positive 12.3% ROI on unders, and a persistent 6.5-yard gap below typical betting lines across 17 road games.

What's Javonte Williams's average Rushing Yards away games?

Williams averages 35.65 rushing yards in away games compared to typical betting lines around 42.15 yards. This 6.5-yard deficit represents consistent value on under bets, as oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to his road limitations over this 17-game sample.

How reliable is this trend?

Target Williams rushing unders when Denver plays away games against strong defensive fronts or in potential high-scoring affairs. Road environments consistently disrupt Denver's ground game, making unders most valuable when game script could turn pass-heavy early.

Methodology: This analysis covers 17 games from 2023-09-24 to 2025-01-12. O/U results use closing prop lines. ROI assumes -110 juice. Pushes excluded from percentages.