Jared Goff's rushing yards prop shows a clear under bias at home, hitting just 45.5% overs across 11 games. Despite averaging 3.64 yards against a typical 1.5 line, the -13.2% ROI on overs suggests consistent market overvaluation. The under presents value.
Expert Analysis
Jared Goff's home rushing yards trend reveals a fascinating disconnect between raw production and betting value. While his 3.64-yard average significantly exceeds the standard 1.5-yard line, the 5-6-0 over/under record tells a more nuanced story about market efficiency. The Lions' home offensive scheme appears designed to minimize Goff's scrambling opportunities, likely due to superior pocket protection at Ford Field and game scripts that favor quick-strike passing attacks. Detroit's home environment typically features better rhythm and timing, reducing the need for Goff to extend plays with his legs. The -13.2% ROI on overs indicates the market consistently overestimates his mobility in comfortable home settings, while the +4.1% under ROI suggests sustainable value. Goff's rushing production stems more from designed rollouts and broken plays than true scrambling ability, making him particularly vulnerable to home game scripts where the Lions control tempo. The recent streak patterns show volatility, but the underlying metrics point to a quarterback whose rushing opportunities diminish when operating from a clean pocket in familiar surroundings.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The +4.1% under ROI combined with Goff's tendency to stay in the pocket at home creates consistent value despite his above-line average. Target games where Detroit is favored by 3+ points, as positive game scripts reduce scrambling necessity. Main risk is garbage-time mobility if the Lions fall behind early, but the home field advantage typically prevents such scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 11 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 21.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | -3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-24 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-09-17 | OPP | 3.5 | 0.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
Recent Trend
Find the Best Rushing Yards Prop Lines
Compare Jared Goff props across top sportsbooks.
Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Rushing Yards prop record home games?
Jared Goff's rushing yards prop at home shows a 5-6-0 over/under record (45.5% overs) across 11 games. The under has generated a +4.1% ROI while overs have produced a -13.2% loss rate.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Rushing Yards home games?
Bet under on Jared Goff's rushing yards at home. The +4.1% under ROI and consistent market overvaluation of his mobility in comfortable home settings creates reliable value, especially when Detroit is favored.
What's Jared Goff's average Rushing Yards home games?
Jared Goff averages 3.64 rushing yards in home games, which is 2.1 yards above the typical 1.5-yard line. However, this average masks the betting reality where unders hit 54.5% of the time.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff rushing yards unders when Detroit is home favorites by 3+ points. Positive game scripts and superior home pocket protection minimize his scrambling opportunities, making unders most profitable in comfortable Lions victories.