Jared Goff's rushing yards prop in conference games presents a clear under opportunity, hitting just 29.4% overs across 17 games with a brutal -0.4 differential from the typical 1.5 line. The Lions quarterback averages only 1.12 rushing yards in these spots, making the under a strong lean.
Expert Analysis
Jared Goff's rushing yards production in conference games reveals a quarterback operating within Detroit's pocket-first offensive system. The 1.12 average against a 1.5 line represents a meaningful 25% shortfall that stems from the Lions' commitment to their aerial attack and Goff's natural playing style. Conference games often feature familiar opponents with better-prepared defenses, leading to more structured pocket passing rather than scrambling opportunities. The 29.4% over rate across 17 games isn't a small sample fluke—it's a systematic pattern reflecting how Detroit utilizes their quarterback. Goff's mobility limitations become more pronounced against division rivals who've studied his tendencies extensively. The -43.9% ROI on overs versus +34.8% on unders quantifies the betting edge clearly. Recent streaks show volatility, but the underlying fundamentals favor continued under performance. The Lions' offensive line quality and commitment to establishing rhythm through quick passes minimizes Goff's need to extend plays with his legs. This isn't about Goff being immobile—it's about Detroit's system rarely requiring or creating rushing opportunities for their quarterback in conference matchups.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. Goff's 1.12 average creates a sustainable edge against the 1.5 line, particularly when Detroit faces conference opponents who've gameplan specifically for their passing attack. The 70.6% under rate across 17 games reflects systematic factors rather than variance. Primary risk comes from garbage time scrambles or unexpected game script changes, but Detroit's offensive philosophy strongly favors the under in most conference game scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | -3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | -2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | -4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 6.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-15 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-01-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-01-14 | OPP | 1.5 | -3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2023-12-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
Favorite vs Underdog
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Rushing Yards prop record conference games?
Goff's rushing yards prop in conference games shows a 5-12-0 over/under record (29.4% overs) across 17 games from September 2023 to January 2025, demonstrating consistent under performance.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Rushing Yards conference games?
Bet under on Goff's rushing yards in conference games. The 70.6% under rate and -0.4 average differential from the line create a clear edge favoring under bets.
What's Jared Goff's average Rushing Yards conference games?
Goff averages 1.12 rushing yards in conference games compared to the typical 1.5 line, creating a -0.4 differential that consistently favors under bettors across the sample.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff rushing yards unders specifically in conference games where opponents have better preparation time and familiarity with Detroit's pocket-passing system and Goff's limited mobility.