Jared Goff's rushing yards props have been a goldmine for under bettors, hitting at 61.9% with an 18.2% ROI over 21 games. Despite averaging 2.05 yards versus a 1.36 line, the Lions quarterback's mobility limitations create consistent value on the under.
Expert Analysis
The numbers tell a compelling story about Jared Goff's rushing limitations in Detroit's offensive system. While Goff averages 2.05 rushing yards per game against lines typically set around 1.36, the under has cashed in 13 of 21 games for an impressive 61.9% hit rate. This apparent contradiction reveals the volatile nature of quarterback rushing props, where a single scramble can skew averages while failing to justify inflated lines. Goff's pocket-passing style under Ben Johnson's offensive scheme prioritizes quick releases and rhythm passing over designed runs or extended scrambles. The Lions' dominant offensive line creates clean pockets that reduce Goff's need to escape, while their explosive skill position players handle the mobility elements. The 18.2% ROI on unders suggests consistent market inefficiency, likely driven by casual bettors overvaluing quarterback rushing in an era of mobile signal-callers. Goff's longest under streak of five games demonstrates the sustainability of this approach, as his fundamental playing style doesn't suddenly transform game-to-game. The recent one-game over streak appears more aberrational than trend-shifting, particularly given Detroit's commitment to protecting their franchise quarterback's health through pocket presence rather than designed mobility.
Betting Verdict
LEAN UNDER with MEDIUM confidence. The 61.9% under rate combined with positive ROI suggests genuine market inefficiency rather than variance. Goff's pocket-passing style and Detroit's offensive philosophy create sustainable edge opportunities. The primary risk lies in garbage time scrambles or unexpected designed runs, but the Lions' typically competitive games minimize those scenarios.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 0.5 | 7.0 | +6.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | -3.0 | -4.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | -1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 7.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 1.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 0.5 | 21.0 | +20.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 1.5 | -2.0 | -3.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 0.5 | 1.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 1.5 | -4.0 | -5.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 0.5 | 5.0 | +4.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 0.5 | -2.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-09-22 | OPP | 0.5 | 6.0 | +5.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Rushing Yards prop record all games?
Jared Goff has gone under his rushing yards prop in 13 of 21 games (61.9%) since September 2023, generating an 18.2% ROI for under bettors while losing 27.3% for over backers.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Rushing Yards all games?
Bet the under on Goff's rushing yards props. The 61.9% under rate with positive ROI suggests consistent market inefficiency, driven by his pocket-passing style and Detroit's offensive philosophy that minimizes quarterback rushing.
What's Jared Goff's average Rushing Yards all games?
Goff averages 2.05 rushing yards per game against typical lines around 1.36 yards. Despite the positive differential, the under hits 61.9% of the time due to the volatile nature of quarterback rushing props.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff rushing unders when Detroit faces quality pass rushes that still allow pocket presence, or in competitive games where the Lions don't need garbage time scrambles to extend drives.