Jared Goff's passing yards props present an exceptional betting edge with a 68.4% over rate (26-12) and +19.2 yard average differential above the line. The 30.6% ROI on overs across 38 games since September 2023 makes this a premium fade-the-books opportunity.
Expert Analysis
Goff's passing yards consistently exceed market expectations due to Detroit's aggressive offensive philosophy under Ben Johnson. The Lions rank among the NFL's fastest-paced offenses, generating more possessions and naturally inflating passing volume. Goff's 272.47 yard average significantly outpaces the typical 253.32 line, suggesting books consistently undervalue his output in this system. The 68.4% over rate demonstrates remarkable consistency across varying game scripts, indicating this isn't merely a product of garbage time or blowout scenarios. Detroit's receiving corps, anchored by Amon-Ra St. Brown and complemented by emerging targets, provides reliable outlets that sustain high completion rates and yardage accumulation. The offensive line's improved pass protection allows Goff to work through progressions, maximizing yards per attempt. Most telling is the stark ROI differential: +30.6% on overs versus -39.7% on unders, revealing sharp money consistently finds value betting over. The seven-game over streak peak suggests Goff can maintain hot stretches, while the maximum two-game under streak indicates quick bounce-back ability. Books appear slow to adjust lines upward, creating persistent market inefficiency.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. The 68.4% hit rate and substantial average differential create a mathematical edge, but the sample size demands measured aggression. Target overs when Goff's line sits below 260 yards, as books often anchor to his pre-Detroit struggles rather than current system fit. Primary risk involves potential regression to mean, though Detroit's pace and scheme suggest sustainable elevation above historical norms.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 15 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 272.5 | 313.0 | +40.5 | OVER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 285.5 | 231.0 | -54.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 253.5 | 303.0 | +49.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 250.5 | 336.0 | +85.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 258.5 | 494.0 | +235.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 254.5 | 283.0 | +28.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 246.5 | 221.0 | -25.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 252.5 | 269.0 | +16.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 230.5 | 412.0 | +181.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 231.5 | 240.0 | +8.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-03 | OPP | 216.5 | 145.0 | -71.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-27 | OPP | 236.5 | 85.0 | -151.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-10-20 | OPP | 252.5 | 280.0 | +27.5 | OVER |
| 2024-10-13 | OPP | 245.5 | 315.0 | +69.5 | OVER |
| 2024-09-30 | OPP | 243.5 | 292.0 | +48.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Find the Best Passing Yards Prop Lines
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Passing Yards prop record all games?
Goff holds a 26-12 over record (68.4%) on passing yards props across 38 games since September 2023. He averages 272.47 yards against a typical line of 253.32, creating a +19.2 yard edge.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Passing Yards all games?
Bet over on Goff's passing yards props. The 68.4% hit rate and 30.6% ROI provide a mathematical edge, particularly when his line sits below 260 yards in Detroit's high-pace offensive system.
What's Jared Goff's average Passing Yards all games?
Goff averages 272.47 passing yards across all games, significantly exceeding the typical 253.32 line. This +19.2 yard differential represents substantial value that books haven't adequately adjusted for in Detroit's system.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff passing yards overs when his line sits below 260 yards, as books often undervalue Detroit's pace. Avoid during potential weather games or when facing elite pass defenses that could disrupt rhythm.