Jared Goff's passing touchdown props have been a goldmine for over bettors, hitting at a 70% rate across his last 10 games with a massive +33.6% ROI. The Lions quarterback is averaging 2.4 touchdowns per game against lines typically set at 1.7, creating consistent value. This is a strong lean over situation.
Expert Analysis
Goff's touchdown explosion stems from Detroit's elite offensive infrastructure and strategic evolution. The Lions have transformed into a pass-heavy red zone attack, with Goff benefiting from premium weapons like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta creating mismatches in scoring territory. His 2.4 touchdown average represents a significant 41% premium over typical lines, suggesting oddsmakers haven't fully adjusted to Detroit's offensive ceiling. The consistency is remarkable - Goff has delivered multiple touchdowns in seven of ten games, with his recent two-game under streak actually representing positive regression potential rather than concerning decline. Detroit's pace and game script advantages persist, as they frequently build leads that force opponents into one-dimensional passing attacks, creating more possessions and scoring opportunities. The Lions' red zone efficiency has been elite, converting at rates that make multiple touchdown games the expectation rather than exception. While the recent mini-streak of unders might suggest cooling, it's worth noting this follows a dominant five-game over run, indicating the underlying offensive structure remains intact. The key risk lies in potential rest scenarios or blowout situations where Goff exits early, but Detroit's competitive schedule makes such scenarios unlikely.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Goff's 70% over rate and +0.7 average differential create legitimate value, particularly given Detroit's red zone prowess and offensive weapons. The ideal conditions involve competitive games where the Lions maintain their aggressive passing approach in scoring territory. The main risk is the recent two-game under streak potentially indicating oddsmaker adjustment, but the underlying offensive metrics support continued over performance.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 2.5 | 1.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 1.5 | 5.0 | +3.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 1.5 | 3.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 1.5 | 0.0 | -1.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 1.5 | 4.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 1.5 | 2.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
Home vs Away
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jared Goff's Passing TDs prop record last 10 games?
Goff has gone over his passing touchdown props in 7 of his last 10 games (70% rate), generating a massive +33.6% ROI for over bettors while under bettors faced -42.7% losses.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jared Goff Passing TDs last 10 games?
Bet the over on Goff's passing touchdown props. His 2.4 average against 1.7 lines creates consistent value, and Detroit's red zone efficiency makes multiple touchdown games the expectation in competitive contests.
What's Jared Goff's average Passing TDs last 10 games?
Goff is averaging 2.4 passing touchdowns over his last 10 games compared to typical lines around 1.7, creating a significant +0.7 differential that represents 41% value above market expectations.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Goff touchdown overs in competitive games where Detroit maintains offensive aggression. Avoid potential blowouts where he might exit early, but Detroit's schedule typically features games requiring full offensive output.