Jameson Williams has demolished reception totals with an 80% over rate (8-2) across his last 10 games, averaging 4.2 receptions against a 3.3 line for a massive +0.9 differential. The Lions receiver has generated exceptional +52.7% ROI on overs while burning under bettors for -61.8%. Strong lean over on Williams reception props.
Expert Analysis
Williams' reception surge reflects Detroit's evolved offensive identity and his crystallizing role as a legitimate WR2 threat. The 4.2 average against 3.3 lines suggests books are consistently undervaluing his target share in Ben Johnson's aggressive passing attack. This isn't statistical noise—Williams has found his groove in Detroit's high-octane system that ranks among the NFL's most pass-heavy offenses. The Lions' commitment to spreading the ball creates natural reception floors for Williams, especially when Amon-Ra St. Brown draws primary coverage. His 80% over rate spans diverse game scripts, indicating genuine usage evolution rather than game-flow dependent variance. The concerning element is regression potential—no receiver sustains this level of line-beating indefinitely. However, Williams' underlying role appears sustainable given Detroit's offensive philosophy and his improved route-running precision. The -61.8% under ROI reflects how dramatically books have misjudged his target ceiling. With Detroit's playoff push intensifying their already aggressive approach, Williams should continue exceeding conservative reception projections. The key risk is whether this recent under signals books finally adjusting lines to match his actual usage patterns.
Betting Verdict
LEAN OVER with MEDIUM confidence. Williams has consistently outperformed reception lines due to Detroit's pass-heavy system and his expanded role, but the recent under suggests potential regression or line adjustment. Target overs when lines remain in the 3.0-3.5 range, as his 4.2 average provides solid cushion. Main risk is books finally catching up to his increased usage and inflating lines beyond value territory.
Performance vs Line
Game Log (Last 10 Games)
| Date | Opp | Line | Actual | +/- | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | OPP | 3.5 | 1.0 | -2.5 | UNDER |
| 2025-01-05 | OPP | 4.5 | 6.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-30 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-22 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-12-15 | OPP | 3.5 | 3.0 | -0.5 | UNDER |
| 2024-12-05 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-28 | OPP | 3.5 | 5.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-24 | OPP | 2.5 | 5.0 | +2.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-17 | OPP | 2.5 | 4.0 | +1.5 | OVER |
| 2024-11-10 | OPP | 2.5 | 3.0 | +0.5 | OVER |
Key Splits
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Compare SportsbooksFrequently Asked Questions
What is Jameson Williams's Receptions prop record last 10 games?
Williams has gone over his reception total in 8 of his last 10 games (80% over rate) with just 2 unders. He's averaging 4.2 receptions against typical lines of 3.3, creating consistent value for over bettors.
Should I bet OVER or UNDER on Jameson Williams Receptions last 10 games?
Lean over on Williams reception props. His 4.2 average significantly exceeds typical 3.3 lines, and Detroit's pass-heavy offense supports his expanded role. However, exercise caution as books may start adjusting lines upward after this dominant stretch.
What's Jameson Williams's average Receptions last 10 games?
Williams is averaging 4.2 receptions over his last 10 games compared to typical prop lines of 3.3. This +0.9 differential represents substantial value, though the gap may narrow as sportsbooks adjust to his increased usage.
How reliable is this trend?
Target Williams reception overs when lines remain in the 3.0-3.5 range, particularly in games where Detroit projects to throw frequently. Avoid when lines climb above 4.0, as this eliminates the historical edge that's driven his 80% over rate.